XG doubled me here and I passed. The gammon values heavily favor the trailer ATS by .97 to .45 and the leader's recube vig is somewhat reduced as well. A good way to estimate g's and bg's in many positions is to compare it to the opening position. If you put yourself on roll in the opening position, you're ~ a 55/45 fav with 15% g's/bg's (so about 27% of your wins are g's/bg's). It's clear that 1)White wins more than 55% here and 2)that > 27% of his wins will be g's or bg's since he almost has his 5-point and Black has 4 men back. How much greater? OTB, I figured 1) was in the low 60s and 2) was about 40%. Plugging these into the gammon-adjusted tp formula gives a tp of about 48% then deduct .45 of my own g's and a few percent for cube vig gives a true tp in the low 40s. I figured I couldn't win that often and the RO agrees.
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| XGID=-baa-AE-D--AcCa--c-d----A-:0:0:1:00:1:2:0:5:10 | ||||
 on roll, cube action? | ||||
is Player 2| Analyzed in Rollout | No double | Double/Take |
| Player Winning Chances: | 62.14% (G:26.97% B:4.01%) | 62.10% (G:26.59% B:9.87%) |
| Opponent Winning Chances: | 37.86% (G:7.23% B:0.52%) | 37.90% (G:7.26% B:0.80%) |
| Cubeless Equities | +0.496 | +1.423 |
| Cubeful Equities | ||
| No double: | +0.912 (-0.088) | ±0.018 (+0.895..+0.930) |
| Double/Take: | +1.148 (+0.148) | ±0.031 (+1.117..+1.179) |
| Double/Pass: | +1.000 | |
| Best Cube action: Double / Pass | ||
| Rollout details | ||
| 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller | ||
| Double Decision confidence: | 100.0% | |
| Take Decision confidence: | 100.0% | |
| Duration: 38 minutes 33 seconds | ||
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.00, MET: Kazaross XG2