BGonline.org Forums

OTB & RO

Posted By: John O'Hagan
Date: Thursday, 27 August 2015, at 2:05 p.m.

In Response To: 4a-3a cube action (John O'Hagan)

XG doubled me here and I passed. The gammon values heavily favor the trailer ATS by .97 to .45 and the leader's recube vig is somewhat reduced as well. A good way to estimate g's and bg's in many positions is to compare it to the opening position. If you put yourself on roll in the opening position, you're ~ a 55/45 fav with 15% g's/bg's (so about 27% of your wins are g's/bg's). It's clear that 1)White wins more than 55% here and 2)that > 27% of his wins will be g's or bg's since he almost has his 5-point and Black has 4 men back. How much greater? OTB, I figured 1) was in the low 60s and 2) was about 40%. Plugging these into the gammon-adjusted tp formula gives a tp of about 48% then deduct .45 of my own g's and a few percent for cube vig gives a true tp in the low 40s. I figured I couldn't win that often and the RO agrees.

 is Player 2 score: 2 pip: 191 5 point match pip: 141 score: 1 is Player 1
XGID=-baa-AE-D--AcCa--c-d----A-:0:0:1:00:1:2:0:5:10
on roll, cube action?

 Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take Player Winning Chances: 62.14% (G:26.97% B:4.01%) 62.10% (G:26.59% B:9.87%) Opponent Winning Chances: 37.86% (G:7.23% B:0.52%) 37.90% (G:7.26% B:0.80%) Cubeless Equities +0.496 +1.423 Cubeful Equities No double: +0.912 (-0.088) ±0.018 (+0.895..+0.930) Double/Take: +1.148 (+0.148) ±0.031 (+1.117..+1.179) Double/Pass: +1.000 Best Cube action: Double / Pass Rollout details 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller Double Decision confidence: 100.0% Take Decision confidence: 100.0% Duration: 38 minutes 33 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.00, MET: Kazaross XG2

• 4a-3a cube action
John O'Hagan -- Tuesday, 25 August 2015, at 3:35 p.m.
• 4a-3a cube action
Stick -- Tuesday, 25 August 2015, at 4:21 p.m.
• OTB & RO
John O'Hagan -- Thursday, 27 August 2015, at 2:05 p.m.
• OTB & RO
scotty -- Thursday, 27 August 2015, at 4:35 p.m.

Post Response

Subject:
Message: