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OLM 20150915A The Prime Factors CONSULTATION

Posted By: Taper_Mike
Date: Friday, 18 September 2015, at 3:04 a.m.

In Response To: OLM 20150915A The Prime Factors CONSULTATION (Chuck Bower)

Even if you had just two candidates and you concluded that for one you always have a take and for the other you sometimes have a pass, I don't think that would be enough to choose between them.

Sure, but it must occasionally tip the balance.

Isn't this just a risk/reward problem? 11/7 has more risk but it also has more reward. You just focused in on a particular risk.

I like this description for the 8/4 part of the play. As you pointed out earlier, a builder on the 8pt targets the 5pt and bar point. The safer play leaves a builder targeting the 3pt, 2pt, and 1pt. Higher risk does equal higher reward.

Another consideration, however, is that a checker on the 11pt has value in containing a lone straggler. Moving it to the 7pt means that we will only get a single shot when that straggler jumps past our 8pt. Thus, we gain by keeping our builders aiming at our key points, but we also lose by sacrificing some of our containment potential.

Mike

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