| 1. | Rollout1 | Bar/22 13/9 | eq: -0.120 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 47.34% (G:12.03% B:0.46%)
52.66% (G:14.46% B:0.76%) | Conf.: กำ 0.009 (-0.129...-0.112) - [100.0%]
Duration: 4 hours 21 minutes |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | Bar/22 9/5* | eq: -0.150 (-0.030) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 47.17% (G:12.41% B:0.49%)
52.83% (G:16.71% B:1.01%) | Conf.: กำ 0.009 (-0.158...-0.141) - [0.0%]
Duration: 5 hours 09 minutes |
|
| 3. | Rollout1 | Bar/21 24/21 | eq: -0.155 (-0.034) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 46.48% (G:11.11% B:0.41%)
53.52% (G:14.12% B:0.58%) | Conf.: กำ 0.009 (-0.163...-0.146) - [0.0%]
Duration: 4 hours 59 minutes |
|
| |
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
John: I'd anchor for money.
Stick: It's almost never right to anchor this early in the game in similar situations unless it's on the 20pt or there's a lot more pressure on us to act defensively when we could make the 9pt instead.
Nack: It seems to me that 41$-41U-43 (see rollout above) is actually an exceptional third roll position of this type. (I'm excluding 41$-43U-43, because obviously one doesn't expose a double direct shot on the 9pt.) Rollouts for the others appear below.
When White's trailing blot is on her 24pt, Blue's best play is @ (anchor, bar/21 24/21), not P (Point, bar/22 13/9). These 24pt positions come up 3.5 times as often, because White's roll can be 11, 31, 42 or 54, as opposed to just 41. The key is that Blue's anchoring fails to duplicate 4s (24/20 vs 20/16*) only in the position above (with duped 3s of 23/20 vs 6/3* being relatively inconsequential), whereas anchoring does duplicate 4s in the (more commonly arising) positions below.
Granted, we are dealing with small margins, but IMO, John showed good intuition with his 21pt-anchoring-for-money notion. He just misapplied it to a specific position (one that lacks the typical 4 duplication).
To be sure you get your money's worth, there are a couple more comments below the final diagram.
| 1. | Rollout1 | Bar/21 24/21 | eq: -0.114 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 47.46% (G:12.38% B:0.48%)
52.54% (G:14.65% B:0.61%) | Conf.: กำ 0.004 (-0.119...-0.110) - [98.9%]
Duration: 23 hours 28 minutes |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | Bar/22 13/9 | eq: -0.121 (-0.007) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 47.33% (G:11.35% B:0.44%)
52.67% (G:14.05% B:0.72%) | Conf.: กำ 0.004 (-0.125...-0.117) - [1.1%]
Duration: 21 hours 00 minute |
|
| |
1 20736 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
| 1. | Rollout1 | Bar/21 24/21 | eq: -0.186 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 45.96% (G:11.70% B:0.48%)
54.04% (G:15.81% B:0.73%) | Conf.: กำ 0.006 (-0.192...-0.179) - [99.4%]
Duration: 10 hours 49 minutes |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | Bar/22 9/5* | eq: -0.197 (-0.012) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 46.09% (G:12.23% B:0.56%)
53.91% (G:17.44% B:1.20%) | Conf.: กำ 0.007 (-0.204...-0.190) - [0.6%]
Duration: 10 hours 45 minutes |
|
| 3. | Rollout1 | Bar/22 13/9 | eq: -0.199 (-0.014) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 45.69% (G:10.94% B:0.48%)
54.31% (G:15.67% B:0.90%) | Conf.: กำ 0.006 (-0.205...-0.193) - [0.1%]
Duration: 9 hours 21 minutes |
|
| |
1 10368 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
| 1. | Rollout1 | Bar/21 24/21 | eq: -0.170 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 46.45% (G:11.74% B:0.47%)
53.55% (G:15.89% B:0.69%) | Conf.: กำ 0.006 (-0.176...-0.163) - [98.8%]
Duration: 12 hours 13 minutes |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | Bar/22 13/9 | eq: -0.179 (-0.010) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 46.08% (G:10.97% B:0.45%)
53.92% (G:15.42% B:0.87%) | Conf.: กำ 0.006 (-0.185...-0.173) - [1.2%]
Duration: 10 hours 48 minutes |
|
| |
1 10368 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
The above position can alternatively be reached by 54S-41H-32H-43. If we nudge White's 24pt checker up to her 23pt (54S-41H-42H-43), Blue should instead play P (Point) instead of @ (anchor) -- rollout indicates by .015, because (consistent with the theme I discussed earlier) White's 4s are no longer duplicated.
There are other examples of this type on the fourth roll and beyond. However, more exist with White's trailing blot on her 24pt (than on her 23pt). Even with White on her 23pt, Blue should anchor in some of the positions where White has an extra checker or two in her outfield.
Nack
