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Rollout

Posted By: Stick
Date: Saturday, 21 October 2006, at 11:55 a.m.

In Response To: 62S-11N-F-C? (Stick)

A little short on the trials, I forgot to lengthen this rollout til I opened it up but thought I'd post it anyway as it gives a good idea of how close to a double this is. Just a couple rolls in and you've got a very solid position, favored to complete your 4 prime before your opponent can get back on his feet. I have always doubled this position [and will continue to usually esp. against weaker players] The position isn't highly volatile but blue has a lot of good numbers here, from simply covering the back of his prime and splitting his back men to hitting the flyer with a 6-4. White has a lot of long term counterplay which most of you would realize and take before the cube hit the board.

Money Game
Cube Action?
166
163
Board image courtesy of GO-Figure

Cube action equity
Rollout Money equity: 0.451
1.3% 21.9% 65.2% 34.8% 8.2% 0.3%
95% confidence interval: - money cubeless eq.: 0.451 0.012. Rollout settings: Full rollout, 1296 games (equiv. 40396 games), played 3-ply (precise), seed 1, with race database.
1. No double 0.659
2. Double, take 0.648 (-0.011)
3. Double, pass 1.000 (+0.341)
Proper cube action: No double, take3%

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