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Rollout

Posted By: Stick
Date: Saturday, 21 October 2006, at 12:02 p.m.

In Response To: NIB #68 (Stick)

When I saw this in the book I was astonished to see the suggested 21/15. Kit's explanation is nothing but lackluster (probably because he couldn't think of any good reason for running!) and as suspected the running play loses too many gammons. Break from the 6, maintain the 5 pt. board, hope to hit a flyer or catch up in the race. The game has to be played til its conclusion (or til you redouble your opponent out!) because you own the cube. I find 21/15 suicidal giving 14 directs in the outfield along with pick and pass numbers and double deuces.

Money Game
74
86
Board image courtesy of GO-Figure

# Ply Move Equity
1 R 6/2 6/4 -0.397
0.0% 1.0% 26.8% 73.2% 3.9% 0.1%
95% confidence interval: - money cubeless eq.: -0.494 ±0.008. Rollout settings: Full rollout, 324 games (equiv. 62994 games), played 3-ply (precise), seed 1, with race database.
2 R 21/15 -0.478 (-0.081)
0.2% 5.8% 27.3% 72.7% 12.3% 0.3%
95% confidence interval: - money cubeless eq.: -0.521 ±0.011. Rollout settings: Full rollout, 324 games (equiv. 34852 games), played 3-ply (precise), seed 1, with race database.

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