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Rollout

Posted By: Stick
Date: Saturday, 21 October 2006, at 12:14 p.m.

In Response To: 41S-11S-42? (Stick)

Looks about as clear as an early position can get that stripping the 8 and leaving the direct shot by making the more valuable 4 pt. isn't the best route. What I really wanted to know when rolling this out is would the sneaky 24/22 overcome 23/21? If you remember if you respond to an opening 3-1 with a 3-2 the correct play by a fraction is the minor split, as it is here. There isn't much of a difference, but I'm an equity hog and will take what I can get. The idea being your opponent will be more apt to hit loose off the front of his prime and be much happier if he points on you at the edge of his prime than if he had done it leaving a gap.

Money Game
163
162
Board image courtesy of GO-Figure

# Ply Move Equity
1 R 24/22 13/9 -0.184
0.5% 11.2% 45.6% 54.4% 15.6% 0.6%
95% confidence interval: - money cubeless eq.: -0.133 ±0.006. Rollout settings: Full rollout, 5184 games (equiv. 156247 games), played 3-ply (precise), random seed, with race database.
2 R 23/21 13/9 -0.185 (-0.001)
0.6% 12.0% 45.4% 54.6% 15.9% 0.7%
95% confidence interval: - money cubeless eq.: -0.131 ±0.007. Rollout settings: Full rollout, 5184 games (equiv. 150685 games), played 3-ply (precise), random seed, with race database.
3 R 8/4 6/4 -0.211 (-0.027)
0.6% 12.8% 44.1% 55.9% 15.5% 0.8%
95% confidence interval: - money cubeless eq.: -0.146 ±0.006. Rollout settings: Full rollout, 5184 games (equiv. 153325 games), played 3-ply (precise), random seed, with race database.
0.6% 11.9% 43.3% 56.7% 16.8% 0.9%
Speed Parameter: Precise.

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