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Another Rollout

Posted By: Nack Ballard
Date: Tuesday, 13 October 2015, at 3:04 a.m.

In Response To: Rollout (Timothy Chow)

Not good enough to redouble? Funny, my rollout says it's too good to redouble.





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 150
7 point match
pip: 65
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=aEC-cBBB-------a-bAbbbb---:1:1:1:00:0:0:0:7:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No redouble Redouble/Take
  Player Winning Chances: 70.38% (G:51.81% B:0.53%) 70.42% (G:53.01% B:2.88%)
  Opponent Winning Chances: 29.62% (G:4.06% B:0.15%) 29.58% (G:3.58% B:0.19%)
  Cubeless Equities +0.925 +1.777
Cubeful Equities
No redouble:+1.001กำ0.003 (+0.998..+1.003)
Redouble/Take:+1.439 (+0.439)กำ0.005 (+1.434..+1.444)
Redouble/Pass:+1.000 (-0.001)
 
Best Cube action: Too good to redouble / Pass
Percentage of wrong take needed to make the double decision right: 0.2%
Rollout details
10368 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 7059602
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
 
Double Decision confidence:70.3%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 6 hours 19 minutes

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