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Shorter sequence, and a Question

Posted By: Nack Ballard
Date: Tuesday, 20 October 2015, at 2:37 a.m.

In Response To: Nactation sequence (Nack Ballard)

 White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 115 Unlimited GameJacoby Beaver pip: 144 score: 0 Blue is Player 1

65R-22N-22N-33O-43T-65R-62R-64O-41Z-C-62H
-43H-63H-43H-F-63r-32-61K-55H-32H-33D-65

The sequence captioned above is three rolls shorter than the one in my previous post. All moves and cube actions are perfectly played, according to rollouts.

Now for my question, which is preceded by an explanation.

XGR++ (incorrectly) disagreed with one of the plays in the sequence, which is illustrated in the diagram below.

 White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 126 Unlimited GameJacoby Beaver pip: 142 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=-a--B-D-C--BbC-aab-ccb---A:0:0:1:41:0:0:3:0:10

Evaluation with cube centered: [C Z6]

1.XG Roller++Bar/24 8/4eq: -0.697
 Player:Opponent: 34.98% (G:8.12% B:0.35%)65.02% (G:25.51% B:0.69%)
2.XG Roller++Bar/24 13/9eq: -0.704 (-0.006)
 Player:Opponent: 35.58% (G:8.20% B:0.40%)64.42% (G:26.77% B:0.84%)

XGR++ plays C (Cross, bar/24 8/4). In case it matters, the 10k (3-ply checker, XGR cube) rollout (not shown) instead supports Z (reverse split, bar/24 13/9) by .016.

After either play, XG, at 3-ply, roller+, ++, whatever, (correctly) doubles and takes. Therefore, shouldn't XGR++ favor the same play regardless of whether the cube is (a) in the center or (b) on Blue's side? After all, when Blue/XG plays his 41, he must know he is going to be cubed -- he may as well own the cube already.

As you can see below, XGR++ changes its choice from C to Z when the cube is placed on Blue's side. My question is: Why does it switch plays?

 White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 126 Unlimited GameJacoby Beaver pip: 142 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=-a--B-D-C--BbC-aab-ccb---A:1:1:1:41:0:0:3:0:10

Evaluation with Blue owning cube: [Z C3]

1.XG Roller++Bar/24 13/9eq: -0.355
 Player:Opponent: 35.42% (G:8.03% B:0.38%)64.58% (G:26.94% B:0.72%)
2.XG Roller++Bar/24 8/4eq: -0.358 (-0.003)
 Player:Opponent: 34.86% (G:8.06% B:0.34%)65.14% (G:25.88% B:0.61%)

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