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OTB counting approach.

Posted By: Timothy Chow
Date: Saturday, 24 October 2015, at 9:47 p.m.

In Response To: OTB counting approach. (Karol Szczerek)

I don't think I would do all that much shot counting here.

I would look at 18/12 13/10 first. I would assume that if I am not hit then I usually win, and usually win a gammon (because I'll cover and White has a lot of pips to run off the gammon). If I am hit then I lose, and will lose quite a few gammons (although White will sometimes just cash). So I should be a strong favorite here.

With the safe play, I wouldn't count shots, but would just try to estimate winning chances. This is tough for me. It looks like I'm a strong favorite as well but I can't tell whether it's better or worse than the other option. I'm not sure that doing more counting would help me.

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