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BGonline.org Forums
*OFF TOPIC* Estimating Republican presidential pool rest of field winning probability
Posted By: leobueno
Date: Friday, 6 November 2015, at 2:14 p.m.
Please take a look at the OddsChecker.com page for the US Republican candidate nomination winning odds.
http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/us-politics/us-presidential-election-2016/republican-candidate
As you can see, there are trivial odds available for candidates like Sarah Palin and Herman Cain which are part of the field, but others may not be as trivial, like Pataki and Graham who are still actively campaigning.
Below, I post the best (highest) decimal odds published for each of the leading candidates plus an assumed cumulative one (1000000) for the rest of the field of candidates (ROF).
To get an idea of the real odds, I convert the decimal odds to probabilities (1/decimal) and show them in percent. As you can see, the sum is 94.7%. I then normalize those odds so that the total will be 100%. As of this writing, Marco Rubio leads with a 38% chance.
I assigned an assumed decimal odds to ROF of 1,000,000 so that the ROF cumulative probability of winning will be effectively 0.
However, I know that the winning probability of the ROF is *not* zero, or conversely, that the odds are likely lower than the assumed 1,000,000.
The question is how to estimate the ROF odds.
Here is my calculation (sorry about the formatting):
OUTCOME ODDS IMPLIED ESTIMATED
Rubio 2.75 36.4% 38%
Trump 5.50 18.2% 19%
Carson 9.00 11.1% 12%
Bush 10.00 10.0% 11%
Cruz 13.00 7.7% 8%
Christi 31.00 3.2% 3%
Fiorina 34.00 2.9% 3%
Kasich 41.00 2.4% 3%
Huckabe 51.00 2.0% 2%
Paul 126.00 0.8% 1%
ROF 1000000 0.0% 0%
Sum 94.7% 100%
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