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Nate Silver & FiveThirtyEight.com

Posted By: Taper_Mike
Date: Friday, 6 November 2015, at 9:11 p.m.

In Response To: *OFF TOPIC* Estimating Republican presidential pool rest of field winning probability (jdg)

I've pretty much defaulted to http://fivethirtyeight.com/ for political odds.

They have this stuff pretty much nailed (as much as can be derived) from an analytical view.

jdg

I have little faith in anyone else.

I was amazed during the last presidential election to hear some of the best analysts, such as David Brooks and Mark Shields, say, on the day before the election, that it was going to be a close one. Of course, those guys are on PBS. It was worse on networks like CNN and Fox. They want viewers to stay glued to their sets, so they don't miss a single ad. No wonder the horse race so close on those stations.

Meanwhile, Nate Silver at FiveThirtyEight.com had been saying for months that the election was a foregone conclusion. Check out his record on Wikipedia. He does the best election forecasting I have seen in my life.

For me, the funniest thing was when an Irish bookie paid those who had bet on Obama the day before the election!

Here is the BGO link where we talked about FiveThirtyEight.com back in 2012.

Mike

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