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Dancing x times on a y point board? Excel help?

Posted By: sebalotek
Date: Thursday, 19 November 2015, at 11:34 a.m.

In Response To: Dancing x times on a y point board? Excel help? (sebalotek)

I've modified the spreadsheet because you are more likely to dance against a stronger board.

I also added Column D - your % chance of coming in first time** with one chequer on the bar.

** This led me to the question, is there a formula which will allow us to express something like:

I have one piece on the bar. My opponent has a 5 point board. Providing his board stays a 5 point board, I should actually come in in an average of (n) rolls.

Apologies if this is basic stuff and if I am missing something obvious here (or if my table already contains the answer). Knowing how many rolls I may dance might help me to decide about cubes which are given to me whilst I am on the bar, for example in races after being hit whilst bearing off.

P.S. Is the answer approximately 3 rolls for a 5 point board? (3 x 31% is pretty close to 100%)

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