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Variants

Posted By: Nack Ballard
Date: Friday, 18 December 2015, at 8:53 p.m.

In Response To: Are you as good as Joe Russell? (Phil Simborg)

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 92 1 point match pip: 49 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=-aB-CCCa---------a-bbbbbb-:1:-1:1:22:0:0:0:1:10
Original Position

1.	Rollout1	6/4 5/3(3)	eq: +0.744
	Player: Opponent: 87.19% (G:18.05% B:2.04%) 12.81% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) Conf.: ¡Ó 0.001 (+0.743...+0.745) - [100.0%] Duration: 4 minutes 31 seconds
2.	Rollout1	6/4(2) 6/2	eq: +0.705 (-0.039)
	Player: Opponent: 85.25% (G:18.40% B:1.42%) 14.75% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) Conf.: ¡Ó 0.001 (+0.704...+0.706) - [0.0%] Duration: 5 minutes 52 seconds
3.	Rollout2	5/3(3) 4/2	eq: +0.644 (-0.100)
	Player: Opponent: 82.19% (G:14.53% B:1.65%) 17.81% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) Conf.: ¡Ó 0.002 (+0.642...+0.646) - [0.0%] Duration: 1 minute 23 seconds
4.	Rollout2	4/2(2) 4/Off	eq: +0.629 (-0.114)
	Player: Opponent: 81.47% (G:17.51% B:1.53%) 18.53% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) Conf.: ¡Ó 0.002 (+0.627...+0.632) - [0.0%] Duration: 2 minutes 06 seconds
5.	Rollout2	6/Off 4/2	eq: +0.596 (-0.148)
	Player: Opponent: 79.78% (G:18.68% B:1.45%) 20.22% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) Conf.: ¡Ó 0.003 (+0.593...+0.598) - [0.0%] Duration: 1 minute 38 seconds
6.	Rollout2	4/Off 2/Off(2)	eq: +0.592 (-0.151)
	Player: Opponent: 79.62% (G:23.67% B:3.29%) 20.38% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) Conf.: ¡Ó 0.006 (+0.587...+0.598) - [0.0%] Duration: 2 minutes 07 seconds
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller 2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

Above is a rollout of Phil's original position. (Normally, I am reluctant to roll out another person's position -- that's the poster's job! -- but endgames go pretty fast.)

Blue's play depends largely on White's timing (how long she can keep her board). The need for caution decreases as the probability of White cracking her board (on this roll or the next roll) increases.

In the original position, Blue's play of 6/4 5/3(3) is clearly best, but as White's 18pt checker is gradually advanced, that play relatively weakens. The tipping point is between White's 10pt and 9pt. (See Variants 1 and 2, which are flanking cusps.) This is where the most aggressive move of taking three checkers off (4/off 2/off(2)) becomes best, the very play that is a whopper with cheese (¡V.0151) in the original position!

By the time White's floating 18pt checker reaches her 6pt, 6/4 5/3(3) moves into fourth place (at ¡V.049, rollout not shown), and it becomes a blunder (¡V.067) when the floating checker arrives at White's 1pt. (See Variant 3.)

Nack

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 84 Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver pip: 49 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=-aB-CCC--------a-a-bbbbbb-:1:-1:1:22:0:0:3:0:10
Variant 1 Compared to the original, White is adjusted 18/10

1.	Rollout1	6/4 5/3(3)	eq: +0.784
	Player: Opponent: 89.50% (G:3.26% B:0.07%) 10.50% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) Conf.: ¡Ó 0.001 (+0.783...+0.785) - [99.9%] Duration: 2 minutes 44 seconds
2.	Rollout1	4/Off 2/Off(2)	eq: +0.779 (-0.006)
	Player: Opponent: 86.38% (G:10.17% B:0.51%) 13.62% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) Conf.: ¡Ó 0.003 (+0.775...+0.782) - [0.1%] Duration: 5 minutes 33 seconds
3.	Rollout1	6/4(2) 6/2	eq: +0.777 (-0.007)
	Player: Opponent: 88.65% (G:4.83% B:0.10%) 11.35% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) Conf.: ¡Ó 0.001 (+0.776...+0.779) - [0.0%] Duration: 3 minutes 40 seconds
4.	Rollout2	4/2(2) 4/Off	eq: +0.741 (-0.044)
	Player: Opponent: 86.41% (G:6.50% B:0.16%) 13.59% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) Conf.: ¡Ó 0.003 (+0.738...+0.744) - [0.0%] Duration: 5 minutes 59 seconds
5.	Rollout3	5/3(3) 4/2	eq: +0.697 (-0.087)
	Player: Opponent: 85.48% (G:4.36% B:0.07%) 14.52% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) Conf.: ¡Ó 0.003 (+0.694...+0.700) - [0.0%] Duration: 1 minute 02 seconds
6.	Rollout3	6/Off 4/2	eq: +0.686 (-0.098)
	Player: Opponent: 84.46% (G:5.93% B:0.11%) 15.54% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) Conf.: ¡Ó 0.003 (+0.683...+0.689) - [0.0%] Duration: 1 minute 05 seconds
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller 2 2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller 3 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 83 Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver pip: 49 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=-aB-CCC---------aa-bbbbbb-:1:-1:1:22:0:0:3:0:10
Variant 2 Compared to the original, White is adjusted 18/9

1.	Rollout1	4/Off 2/Off(2)	eq: +0.794
	Player: Opponent: 87.05% (G:10.11% B:0.47%) 12.95% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) Conf.: ¡Ó 0.004 (+0.790...+0.797) - [100.0%] Duration: 5 minutes 40 seconds
2.	Rollout1	6/4 5/3(3)	eq: +0.786 (-0.008)
	Player: Opponent: 89.68% (G:3.09% B:0.06%) 10.32% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) Conf.: ¡Ó 0.001 (+0.785...+0.787) - [0.0%] Duration: 2 minutes 45 seconds
3.	Rollout1	6/4(2) 6/2	eq: +0.784 (-0.010)
	Player: Opponent: 89.10% (G:4.40% B:0.09%) 10.90% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) Conf.: ¡Ó 0.001 (+0.783...+0.786) - [0.0%] Duration: 3 minutes 36 seconds
4.	Rollout2	4/2(2) 4/Off	eq: +0.751 (-0.043)
	Player: Opponent: 87.11% (G:6.15% B:0.15%) 12.89% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) Conf.: ¡Ó 0.004 (+0.746...+0.755) - [0.0%] Duration: 1 minute 49 seconds
5.	Rollout2	5/3(3) 4/2	eq: +0.700 (-0.094)
	Player: Opponent: 85.81% (G:4.17% B:0.07%) 14.19% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) Conf.: ¡Ó 0.004 (+0.696...+0.704) - [0.0%] Duration: 1 minute 31 seconds
6.	Rollout2	6/Off 4/2	eq: +0.694 (-0.100)
	Player: Opponent: 84.98% (G:5.61% B:0.10%) 15.02% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) Conf.: ¡Ó 0.003 (+0.690...+0.697) - [0.0%] Duration: 1 minute 30 seconds
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller 2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 75 Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver pip: 49 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=-aB-CCC----------a-bbbbbc-:1:-1:1:22:0:0:3:0:10
Variant 3 Compared to the original, White is adjusted 18/1

1.	Rollout1	4/Off 2/Off(2)	eq: +0.912
	Player: Opponent: 92.67% (G:8.36% B:0.32%) 7.33% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) Conf.: ¡Ó 0.003 (+0.909...+0.914) - [100.0%] Duration: 8 minutes 00 second
2.	Rollout1	4/2(2) 4/Off	eq: +0.869 (-0.043)
	Player: Opponent: 92.50% (G:4.70% B:0.09%) 7.50% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) Conf.: ¡Ó 0.002 (+0.867...+0.870) - [0.0%] Duration: 7 minutes 34 seconds
3.	Rollout2	6/4(2) 6/2	eq: +0.859 (-0.052)
	Player: Opponent: 92.58% (G:3.59% B:0.07%) 7.42% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) Conf.: ¡Ó 0.002 (+0.858...+0.861) - [0.0%] Duration: 3 minutes 45 seconds
4.	Rollout2	6/4 5/3(3)	eq: +0.845 (-0.067)
	Player: Opponent: 92.30% (G:2.88% B:0.06%) 7.70% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) Conf.: ¡Ó 0.001 (+0.843...+0.846) - [0.0%] Duration: 3 minutes 02 seconds
5.	Rollout3	6/Off 4/2	eq: +0.817 (-0.095)
	Player: Opponent: 90.39% (G:4.56% B:0.09%) 9.61% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) Conf.: ¡Ó 0.003 (+0.814...+0.820) - [0.0%] Duration: 2 minutes 49 seconds
6.	Rollout3	5/3(3) 4/2	eq: +0.796 (-0.116)
	Player: Opponent: 89.87% (G:3.49% B:0.07%) 10.13% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) Conf.: ¡Ó 0.003 (+0.793...+0.799) - [0.0%] Duration: 2 minutes 55 seconds
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller 2 2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller 3 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

Messages In This Thread

• Are you as good as Joe Russell?
  Phil Simborg -- Saturday, 5 December 2015, at 2:58 p.m.
  • Are you as good as Joe Russell?
    MishyPoo -- Saturday, 5 December 2015, at 3:04 p.m.
    • Are you as good as Joe Russell?
      Casper Van der Tak -- Saturday, 5 December 2015, at 3:56 p.m.
      • Are you as good as Joe Russell?
        John O'Hagan -- Saturday, 5 December 2015, at 4:26 p.m.
        • Are you as good as Joe Russell?
          Casper Van der Tak -- Saturday, 5 December 2015, at 5:04 p.m.
      • Are you as good as Joe Russell?
        Christian Munk-Christensen -- Saturday, 5 December 2015, at 7:39 p.m.
  • Are you as good as Joe Russell?
    Chuck Bower -- Saturday, 5 December 2015, at 9:51 p.m.
  • Variants
    Nack Ballard -- Friday, 18 December 2015, at 8:53 p.m.