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Rollout

Posted By: Timothy Chow
Date: Thursday, 7 January 2016, at 5:17 p.m.

In Response To: Here's a good opportunity to laugh at XG 3-ply (Timothy Chow)

I get some satisfaction when XG 3-ply disagrees with a rollout, even if I don't understand the position myself.





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 153
7 point match
pip: 67
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=aCEc-BBB-------a-bAbbbb---:1:1:1:00:0:0:0:7:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No redouble Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances: 60.73% (G:46.37% B:2.42%) 60.27% (G:48.72% B:7.12%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 39.27% (G:5.39% B:0.19%) 39.73% (G:4.54% B:0.15%)
Cubeless Equities +0.680 +1.257
Cubeful Equities
No redouble:+0.7630.009 (+0.754..+0.772)
Redouble/Take:+0.761 (-0.002)0.015 (+0.746..+0.776)
Redouble/Pass:+1.000 (+0.237)
Best Cube action: No redouble / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 0.7%
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:57.3%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 28 minutes 17 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.208.pre-release, MET: Kazaross XG2


XG 3-ply:





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 153
7 point match
pip: 67
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=aCEc-BBB-------a-bAbbbb---:1:1:1:00:0:0:0:7:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in 3-ply No redouble Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances: 64.99% (G:46.80% B:0.59%) 64.97% (G:46.85% B:0.59%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 35.01% (G:4.22% B:0.23%) 35.03% (G:4.23% B:0.23%)
Cubeless Equities +0.761 +1.423
Cubeful Equities
No redouble:+0.892 (-0.108)
Redouble/Take:+1.064 (+0.064)
Redouble/Pass:+1.000
Best Cube action: Redouble / Pass

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.208.pre-release, MET: Kazaross XG2

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