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Rollout Results, Variations

Posted By: Paul Weaver
Date: Friday, 8 January 2016, at 5:18 p.m.

In Response To: Michy Recubes Akiko to 16, NJ Highrollers (Paul Weaver)





White is Akiko

score: 3
pip: 69
21 point match
pip: 127
score: 1

Blue is Michy
XGID=-bEDBBA--a---a---b-bc-bAb-:3:-1:-1:00:3:1:0:21:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No redouble Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances: 65.56% (G:15.50% B:0.51%) 66.12% (G:14.54% B:0.54%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 34.44% (G:14.11% B:3.36%) 33.88% (G:14.94% B:4.06%)
Cubeless Equities +0.367 +0.707
Cubeful Equities
No redouble:+0.666 (-0.039)±0.003 (+0.663..+0.669)
Redouble/Take:+0.705±0.003 (+0.702..+0.708)
Redouble/Pass:+1.000 (+0.295)
Best Cube action: Redouble / Take
Rollout details
5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 101
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 6 hours 49 minutes

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2
White is Akiko

score: 0
pip: 69
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 127
score: 0

Blue is Michy
XGID=-bEDBBA--a---a---b-bc-bAb-:0:0:-1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 64.61% (G:16.31% B:0.45%) 65.24% (G:17.79% B:0.56%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 35.39% (G:13.16% B:1.07%) 34.76% (G:13.11% B:1.04%)
Cubeless Equities +0.318 +0.694
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.530±0.006 (+0.524..+0.535)
Double/Take:+0.504 (-0.026)±0.008 (+0.496..+0.512)
Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.470)
Best Cube action: No double / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 4.9%
Rollout details
5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 101
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 2 hours 28 minutes

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10
White is Player 2

score: 1
pip: 54
21 point match
pip: 120
score: 1

Blue is Player 1
XGID=--a-BCC-C----BAA----abbcf-:1:1:1:00:1:1:0:21:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No redouble Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances: 74.50% (G:5.29% B:0.16%) 75.11% (G:5.44% B:0.14%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 25.50% (G:4.92% B:0.01%) 24.89% (G:5.15% B:0.01%)
Cubeless Equities +0.495 +1.026
Cubeful Equities
No redouble:+0.842 (-0.096)±0.003 (+0.839..+0.845)
Redouble/Take:+0.938±0.005 (+0.934..+0.943)
Redouble/Pass:+1.000 (+0.062)
Best Cube action: Redouble / Take
Rollout details
5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 101
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 53 minutes 45 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2
White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 54
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 120
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=--a-BCC-C----BAA----abbcf-:1:1:1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No redouble Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances: 74.46% (G:5.27% B:0.16%) 75.05% (G:5.44% B:0.14%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 25.54% (G:4.82% B:0.01%) 24.95% (G:5.01% B:0.01%)
Cubeless Equities +0.495 +1.013
Cubeful Equities
No redouble:+0.837 (-0.083)±0.003 (+0.834..+0.840)
Redouble/Take:+0.920±0.005 (+0.915..+0.925)
Redouble/Pass:+1.000 (+0.080)
Best Cube action: Redouble / Take
Rollout details
5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 101
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 57 minutes 02 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10
White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 52
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 120
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=--a-BCC-C----BAA-----bccf-:1:1:1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No redouble Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances: 73.39% (G:4.43% B:0.13%) 74.11% (G:4.57% B:0.12%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 26.61% (G:4.84% B:0.01%) 25.89% (G:5.01% B:0.01%)
Cubeless Equities +0.465 +0.958
Cubeful Equities
No redouble:+0.813 (-0.049)±0.003 (+0.810..+0.817)
Redouble/Take:+0.863±0.005 (+0.858..+0.868)
Redouble/Pass:+1.000 (+0.137)
Best Cube action: Redouble / Take
Rollout details
5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 101
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 42 minutes 22 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10
White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 49
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 120
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=--a-BCC-C----BAA------ddf-:1:1:1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No redouble Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances: 74.46% (G:3.62% B:0.09%) 75.48% (G:3.66% B:0.08%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 25.54% (G:4.43% B:0.01%) 24.52% (G:4.68% B:0.02%)
Cubeless Equities +0.482 +1.000
Cubeful Equities
No redouble:+0.832 (-0.072)±0.006 (+0.825..+0.838)
Redouble/Take:+0.904±0.009 (+0.895..+0.914)
Redouble/Pass:+1.000 (+0.096)
Best Cube action: Redouble / Take
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 101
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 9 minutes 58 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10
White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 46
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 120
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=--a-BCC-C----BAA------cch-:1:1:1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No redouble Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances: 75.77% (G:4.47% B:0.11%) 76.39% (G:4.66% B:0.11%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 24.23% (G:4.73% B:0.01%) 23.61% (G:4.43% B:0.01%)
Cubeless Equities +0.514 +1.062
Cubeful Equities
No redouble:+0.867 (-0.101)±0.003 (+0.864..+0.870)
Redouble/Take:+0.967±0.005 (+0.962..+0.973)
Redouble/Pass:+1.000 (+0.033)
Best Cube action: Redouble / Take
Rollout details
5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 101
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 40 minutes 31 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10
White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 45
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 120
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=--a-BCC-C----BAA------bdh-:1:1:1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No redouble Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances: 77.06% (G:5.40% B:0.14%) 77.63% (G:5.48% B:0.14%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 22.94% (G:4.67% B:0.01%) 22.37% (G:4.18% B:0.01%)
Cubeless Equities +0.550 +1.134
Cubeful Equities
No redouble:+0.884 (-0.116)±0.003 (+0.881..+0.888)
Redouble/Take:+1.044 (+0.044)±0.005 (+1.039..+1.049)
Redouble/Pass:+1.000
Best Cube action: Redouble / Pass
Rollout details
4072 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 101
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 29 minutes 44 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

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