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Reconciliation example

Posted By: Tenland
Date: Friday, 29 January 2016, at 2:30 p.m.

In Response To: Reconciliation example (Nack Ballard)

Big thanks to both you and Neil Robins for your help with this!

For comparison, I carried out similar analysis for 41T-31P/42P/53P-62. I used the evals XG presents under "Dice distribution" --> "Details" after pressing 4-ply.

In that case, we don't have the same issue with the 53 (/55 vs 54) against, say, a 51 hit. As a matter of fact, the 43 goes the other way vs 31P. As expected, the split doesn't lose more compared to the run after 42P then, than it does after 31P (actually even slightly less).

Still, even in the 41T-P position, splitting is a little worse against 42P (but only by 0.007 according to the 4-ply analysis) than against 31P and 53P. Comparing to 31P, the main reason seems to be 22 and 11, only partly made up for by 33.

A very small factor is also that when he airballs with 32 52 53, he is a little happier to hit on the ace after 42P than after 31P (and if he doesn't, we are happier to have slotted the anchor vs 31).

Between 42P and 53P, pinpointing the reasons was much harder, as the swings on every single move were so small. But ok, maybe that is acceptable when the total swing between running and splitting is only 0.007 anyway...

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