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OLM 20160226A The Prime Factors

Posted By: Chuck Bower
Date: Saturday, 27 February 2016, at 1:22 p.m.

In Response To: OLM 20160226A The Prime Factors (Taper_Mike)

With only two (and a half) plays to consider, one being pretty rote I don't think this will make it to consultation. I will add that I looked at Dillie's awkward (i.e. blotting) rolls, of which there are 12 -- all with dice separated by 3 or more pips. Comparing 23/20 vs. keeping both checkers put:

{51,61} -- these are bad for them no matter how we play this roll. Likely they just knock us off their acepoint, leaving 11 return shots. This probably favors our staying back because we'll keep at least one checker deep instead of sometimes being forced to enter high in their board.

62 -- minimum of 13 shots if we move up to 20-point. 4 shots if we stay back.

52 -- minimum of 11 shots if we move up to 20-point. 4 shots after clearing the midpoint and 7 if the make the 4-point when we stay back

63 -- minimum of 11 shots if we move up to 20-point. 7 shots if they make the 3-point and 8 shots of they clear the midpoint when we stay back.

41 -- 4 shots (from bar) when we move up. 8 shots if we stay back.

Summing it looks like 16 net shots by moving up to the 20-point. The significant, unmentioned downside I see to moving up is that we get fewer shots with {43,42} -- 4 instead of 8 -- as when they roll 41 if we play 23/20 (above). So the net 16 reduces to net 8. The less significant (but more frequent) downside occurs when they make their 5-point without blotting (10 of their rolls?) as we'll go to the bar and may fail to enter.

Obviously I only did a 1-ply analysis (with a bit of 2-ply thrown in). I don't know how much we gain/lose in the next sequence after both sides survive this turn.

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