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Some simple questions

Posted By: Mislav Kovacic
Date: Tuesday, 1 March 2016, at 6:04 p.m.

In Response To: Some simple questions (Jakob Garal)

Here are my answers:

1. Who will be the winner of this event: one of 300 unknown players or one of 100 international (masters and advanced)?

I don't know what you mean by "unknown" players but I'll assume those aren't the total beginners (since they are playing in the big event) but rather not particularly strong players. Since they are "unknown" to you, some of them might in fact be much stronger than you think.
Anyway, let's assume that the "unknown" group plays 9,5 PR on average and that the "masters and advanced" group plays 6,5 PR on average. If my assumptions are not too off I think the "unknown" group is a clear favorite to produce a tourney winner.


2. How many masters and advanced players will be in the first 10, 20, 30, 40 places?

Impossible to answer. Variance of results in a single tournament is huge and I wouldn't be surprised at all to see the number of "master and advanced" players in top 40 ranging from 5 to 25. I think Phil's guesses are too optimistic. There isn't really that much skill involved in a single tournament, whatever the format.


3. Can the person who won 14 matches (three 11 points and eleven 9 points) be the player with PR more than 10?

Absolutely. If we assume that the average PR of 300 "unknown" players is 9,5 PR and that the average PR of 100 "masters and advanced" players is 6,5 PR, then the average PR of the field is only 8,75. I think it's quite possible for a 10+ player to achieve that many wins in such not-too-strong field. If you had specified a specific 10+ PR player and asked about his likelihood of winning that many matches then of course it is highly unlikely, but considering that there are probably many 10+ players in the tournament it wouldn't be surprising at all to see some of them perform way better than expected.


4. Who is more experienced nd who is more lucky: guy, who won 6 times 15 points matches or another guy who won 14 times 9 points matches?

Didn't understand the question.


5. And, "last, but not least" - is somebody ready to buy a ticket for 1000$ against 100$, that in case famous 10 persons from Giants list take part in such event one of them will be for sure the winner?

I think I'll save my money. :)

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