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Rollout

Posted By: Stick
Date: Tuesday, 24 October 2006, at 3:14 a.m.

In Response To: 41S-32Z-42? (Stick)

Again the top plays are all relatively close. The pattern I'm noticing is that any inner board point that isn't the five point isn't worth leaving a direct shot [possibly in combination with the back men being split] The 9 pt. is a fine pt. leaving a good distribution and you'll be able to naturally make points further down the road so the minor risk of leaving a blot to be hit and lose all those pips in the race, take away a builder, etc... doesn't seem to be worth it. Stepping up with the rearmost checker is correct because it doesn't come "under the gun" as 23/21 does.

Money Game
162
162
Board image courtesy of GO-Figure

# Ply Move Equity
1 R 24/22 13/9 0.063
0.6% 13.4% 51.9% 48.1% 12.7% 0.5%
95% confidence interval: - money cubeless eq.: 0.045 0.006. Rollout settings: Full rollout, 5184 games (equiv. 165598 games), played 3-ply (precise), random seed, with race database.
2 R 23/21 13/9 0.050 (-0.013)
0.7% 14.6% 51.5% 48.5% 14.2% 0.6%
95% confidence interval: - money cubeless eq.: 0.036 0.006. Rollout settings: Full rollout, 5184 games (equiv. 161097 games), played 3-ply (precise), random seed, with race database.
3 R 8/4 6/4 0.047 (-0.016)
0.6% 15.2% 50.9% 49.1% 13.5% 0.7%
95% confidence interval: - money cubeless eq.: 0.036 0.006. Rollout settings:< Full rollout, 5184 games (equiv. 159337 games), played 3-ply (precise), random seed, with race database.
4 R 13/9 13/11 0.033 (-0.030)
0.7% 14.7% 50.9% 49.1% 14.1% 0.7%
95% confidence interval: - money cubeless eq.: 0.024 0.007. Rollout settings: Full rollout, 5184 games (equiv. 154587 games), played 3-ply (precise), random seed, with race database.

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