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Rollout

Posted By: Stick
Date: Tuesday, 24 October 2006, at 3:21 a.m.

In Response To: 63S-11N-F-C? (Stick)

I don't know what's up with Snowie, it does this on odd occassions. The rollout says the equity of a double take is .009 more than ND/T but it then lists the proper cube action as ND/T?! Anyway...I cubed the last one, I cube this one. Basically every upcoming sequence is going to improve your position and though not overly volatile there is some volatility. [I may be making up words, not sure lol] Your opponent could fan of course with 4 #s, on top of that you hit now with 5 rolls and he'll have two in the air. Aside from that you either extend the back of your prime or possibly roll it forward dice permitting. You will maintain the advantage for a few rolls to come and I think this is a must double.

Money Game
Cube Action?
165
163
Board image courtesy of GO-Figure

Cube action equity
Rollout Money equity: 0.460
1.4% 22.2% 65.5% 34.5% 8.3% 0.4%
95% confidence interval: - money cubeless eq.: 0.460 0.006. Rollout settings: Full rollout, 5184 games (equiv. 142329 games), played 3-ply (precise), random seed, with race database.
1. No double 0.678
2. Double, take 0.687 (-0.009)
3. Double, pass 1.000 (+0.322)
Proper cube action: No double, take-3%

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