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XG shows negative MWC?

Posted By: David Levy
Date: Tuesday, 10 May 2016, at 9:35 p.m.

XG flagged my opponent's play as a .22 error. No way, I thought. There's not much match equity at stake. So I switched from normalized equity to MWC. I couldn't figure out how to display the MWC here on BGOnline, but 21/17 18/15 has MWC of 0.53% and 21/14 has MWC of -1.53%. Yes, -1.53%! How does XG come up with a negative MWC?

This happens on XG+, XG++, and the modest rollout shown here.





White is Player 2

score: 6
pip: 26
7 point match
Crawford
pip: 164
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-DEBcbAa----------bb-bc---:0:0:-1:43:6:0:1:7:10
Blue to play 43

1.xgRollout121/17 18/15eq: -0.941
Player:
Opponent:
3.30% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
96.70% (G:95.39% B:0.55%)
Conf.: 0.001 (-0.942...-0.940) - [100.0%]
Duration: 9.5 seconds
2.playedRollout121/14eq: -1.169 (-0.228)
Player:
Opponent:
3.28% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
96.72% (G:95.34% B:0.35%)
Conf.: 0.001 (-1.170...-1.168) - [0.0%]
Duration: 8.4 seconds
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

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