Thanks for the insights. I think the main reason behind hitting is that we have only 1 guy back, who is vulnerable to tempo-hits. So our best chance is to go after solid prime with a slight chance to push opps blot to our ace, and closing the bar (such sequences gets us to the 50/50 zone).
         
 
         
 | | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 102 | | 1 point match | pip: 108
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=--aBCCC-A----B-a-bbbbbcA--:0:0:1:41:0:0:0:1:10 |
| Blue to play 41 |
1. | Rollout1 | 8/7 6/2* | eq: -0,470 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 26,49% (G:5,09% B:0,49%)
73,51% (G:28,58% B:3,10%) | Conf.: ± 0,007 (-0,477...-0,463) - [100,0%]
Duration: 1 minute 54 seconds |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 13/12 6/2* | eq: -0,518 (-0,047) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 24,12% (G:4,62% B:0,42%)
75,88% (G:31,95% B:3,38%) | Conf.: ± 0,007 (-0,525...-0,510) - [0,0%]
Duration: 1 minute 41 seconds |
|
3. | Rollout1 | 13/8 | eq: -0,529 (-0,059) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 23,54% (G:5,56% B:0,56%)
76,46% (G:16,33% B:0,96%) | Conf.: ± 0,006 (-0,535...-0,523) - [0,0%]
Duration: 1 minute 44 seconds |
|
| |
1 648 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.208.pre-release, MET: Kazaross XG2
Variant A
Compared to the original position, bottom player is adjusted 4/23.
No tempo hits for the opp. Block now and hope for his near crunch.
Interesting to note is how our GWC swings on the 13/8 move between original position and this variant.
| | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 102 | | 1 point match | pip: 127
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=--aBBCC-A----B-a-bbbbbcB--:0:0:1:41:0:0:0:1:10 |
| Blue to play 41 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 13/8 | eq: -0,292 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 35,41% (G:4,04% B:0,32%)
64,59% (G:13,63% B:1,48%) | Conf.: ± 0,006 (-0,298...-0,286) - [100,0%]
Duration: 2 minutes 20 seconds |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 8/7 6/2* | eq: -0,370 (-0,078) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 31,52% (G:3,72% B:0,59%)
68,48% (G:27,53% B:5,30%) | Conf.: ± 0,007 (-0,377...-0,362) - [0,0%]
Duration: 3 minutes 06 seconds |
|
| |
1 648 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.208.pre-release, MET: Kazaross XG2
Variant B
Compared to the original position, bottom player is adjusted 4/23 and top player - 3/11.
Giving the opp more time still doesn't make it right to hit now. This plan looks too desperate while we still have ok timing to try to wait for his crunch.
| | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 110 | | 1 point match | pip: 127
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=--aBBCC-A----Baa-bbbbbbB--:0:0:1:41:0:0:0:1:10 |
| Blue to play 41 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 13/8 | eq: -0,520 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 24,01% (G:2,19% B:0,11%)
75,99% (G:15,40% B:1,16%) | Conf.: ± 0,006 (-0,525...-0,514) - [100,0%]
Duration: 2 minutes 48 seconds |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 8/7 6/2* | eq: -0,553 (-0,033) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 22,35% (G:2,31% B:0,11%)
77,65% (G:28,55% B:5,26%) | Conf.: ± 0,007 (-0,560...-0,546) - [0,0%]
Duration: 3 minutes 28 seconds |
|
| |
1 648 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.208.pre-release, MET: Kazaross XG2