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Could you win this game as Blue 1 out of 5000 times?

Posted By: Barry Silliman
Date: Sunday, 5 June 2016, at 4:00 p.m.

Match to 11, Blue leads 4-2
Blue on roll. Cube action?
White3

Blue131
GNUBg Id: BwAAwPRJHAUAAA:UQlgASAAIAAA
XGID=---B-AE-A-A--C--AA------c-:1:1:1:00:4:2:0:11:16

I'm curious as to why XG says that Blue has 0.02% winning chances here.

I'm also curious as to why it says Blue's cubeless equity is -2.121 here and not -4.

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