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𣯔 Cube Action

Posted By: John O'Hagan
Date: Sunday, 12 June 2016, at 2:18 a.m.

In Response To: 𣯔 Cube Action (Paul Weaver)

White needs 20% + 100% of your g's to take. No doubt whatsoever that White has a take here. Only 13 numbers hit and White is only a substantial underdog if Blue hits with D4 or D2. White has a fine game if he hits or anchors after any of the other 11 hits. White's also a clear favorite after any of Blue's 23 non-hitters. I'd make White close to a 60/40 favorite in the game. I'd guesstimate 20% g's for Blue which makes White's tp to be 40%. So Blue is almost 20% away from an efficient double.

Being that far away from an efficient double would make this a huge no double at a normal score. The trailer however is supposed to double a lot more aggressively in gammonish positions at this score. My rule for gammonish cubes at this score is that the trailer can double if he has 3 or 4 market losers and is within 8% of the leader's tp. If the trailer has more than 3 or 4 market losers, he can double even sooner. Here I count about 6.5 market losers but you're close to 20% away from the leader's tp. Is 6.5 enough market losers enough to double when you're this far from the leader's tp? I don't think it is so I'd take a roll.

OTOH, hit/fan is a big market loser and White wins some g's here as well and they will win the match if the cube's on 1 or 2. Probably a close d/nd decision but I'd hold off.

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