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Rollout Results: Huge Money Beaver and Match Double

Posted By: Paul Weaver
Date: Monday, 13 June 2016, at 1:42 a.m.

In Response To: –4–2 Cube Action (Paul Weaver)

XG is much better than Jellyfish, but Jellyfish had one feature I wish XG had. When Jellyfish gave its opinion of cube action, it stated the volatility of the position on the screen along with the equities. XG also gives you the volatility of the position, but you have to do a bit of work to find it. With the given position open in XG, go to "Analyze" and then to "Dice Distribution" and then check the box that says "After Double/Take" and then you will see the volatility hidden at the bottom of the box.

For this position, the volatility is a stratospheric 1.425. If I were required to give a one-word reason this position is a double at the score, I would choose "Volatility." If I were required to give a two-word explanation, I would choose "Market losers."





White is Top Player

score: 0
pip: 141
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 143
score: 0

Blue is Bottom Player
XGID=--BBBaB--B-acB--bb-dbA-A-A:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 42.83% (G:17.67% B:0.68%) 42.97% (G:18.10% B:0.68%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 57.17% (G:14.54% B:0.88%) 57.03% (G:15.22% B:1.00%)
Cubeless Equities -0.114 -0.230
Cubeful Equities
No double:-0.200±0.013 (-0.213..-0.186)
Double/Beaver:-1.382 (-1.182)±0.045 (-1.427..-1.337)
Double/Pass:+1.000 (+1.200)
Best Cube action: No double / Beaver
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 33.2%
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 101
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 58 minutes 18 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10
White is MacWin

score: 9
pip: 141
11 point match
pip: 143
score: 7

Blue is peever
XGID=--BBBaB--B-acB--bb-dbA-A-A:0:0:1:D:7:9:0:11:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 42.80% (G:17.38% B:0.78%) 43.24% (G:17.32% B:1.04%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 57.20% (G:15.15% B:1.99%) 56.76% (G:15.14% B:1.96%)
Cubeless Equities -0.232 +0.091
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.044 (-0.046)±0.003 (+0.041..+0.047)
Double/Take:+0.091±0.003 (+0.087..+0.094)
Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.909)
Best Cube action: Double / Take
Rollout details
41472 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 101
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 10 hours 54 minutes

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

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