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BGonline.org Forums
Trouble 6
Posted By: Stick In Response To: Trouble 6 (Karol Szczerek)
Date: Tuesday, 14 June 2016, at 6:18 a.m.
I referenced this problem in another post but for some reason nobody has replied to this particular problem.
First let's do away with 8/2 as an option. While it is the play that leaves the least amount of shots and blots, I absolutely abhor killing another checker past my open 4pt when it is likely that I'll have to bear off anchor the 24pt anchor game. By never being able to make the 4pt when we keep killing these spares we let our opponent play a phantom backgame. It's also simply much harder to bear off against the 24pt anchor game alone when all our spares get pushed so deep.
That leaves only two plays, bar/15 and bar/21 13/7.
As I alluded to in my other post the duplication of threes here is quite significant if we play 13/7. It will force the opponent to hit with his front checker leaving three men still on our ace point. This play also keeps the security of our 21pt anchor meaning even when hit and things go poorly immediately, we're still in the game. We won't ever be closed out (we'll come in eventually) I would guess this play also has more of an offensive pay off when we aren't hit.
As for bar/15 which gives up our anchor it forces the opponent to find an ace or a deuce or really be up the creek without a paddle. Perhaps a cube next turn without one? It also makes the opponent hit loose with deuces and sevens meaning there is a penalty that comes with that particular hit, the immediate shots back which are soul crushing.
I'm not sure which play the dmp play is. I figure that 13/7 has to both win more and lose less gammons though so I'll go with it. If the plays turn out to be close and this was a match v. another person I would definitely take the play with the least gammon losses as the reported gammon values are likely to differ.
Stick
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