51S-21 – Index to Rollouts

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51S-21 – Index to Rollouts

Posted By: Taper_Mike
Date: Sunday, 21 August 2016, at 7:54 p.m.

In Response To: That old chestnut, 51S-21 (Timothy Chow)

White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 161

Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver

pip: 167
score: 0

Blue is Player 1

XGID=-aa---E-C---dE---d-e----B-:0:0:1:21:0:0:3:0:10
Blue to play 21

1. Book¹ 24/21 eq: -0.1648
Player:
Opponent: 46.37% (G:11.14% B:0.47%)
53.63% (G:15.16% B:0.59%) Conf.: ±0.0026 (-0.1674...-0.1623) - [100.0%]
2. Book¹ 13/11 6/5 eq: -0.1740 (-0.0092)
Player:
Opponent: 46.72% (G:12.25% B:0.50%)
53.28% (G:17.21% B:1.24%) Conf.: ±0.0029 (-0.1769...-0.1711) - [0.0%]
3. Book¹ 13/10 eq: -0.1861 (-0.0212)
Player:
Opponent: 45.77% (G:12.13% B:0.49%)
54.23% (G:15.86% B:0.88%) Conf.: ±0.0026 (-0.1887...-0.1834) - [0.0%]
4. Book¹ 24/23 13/11 eq: -0.1869 (-0.0221)
Player:
Opponent: 45.92% (G:11.68% B:0.47%)
54.08% (G:16.06% B:0.73%) Conf.: ±0.0026 (-0.1895...-0.1844) - [0.0%]
5. Book² 24/23 24/22 eq: -0.2054 (-0.0406)
Player:
Opponent: 45.43% (G:10.58% B:0.42%)
54.57% (G:15.52% B:0.58%) Conf.: ±0.0053 (-0.2107...-0.2001) - [0.0%]

¹ Generated by Steven Carey on 3/29/2013 using eXtreme Gammon 2.10
46656 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 90680458
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

² Generated by David Rockwell on 4/22/2012 using eXtreme Gammon 2.00
10368 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 27207905
Moves and cube decisions: 3-ply

XG Opening Book, v. 3.7

51S-21 — Unlimited Game
Bot Seed Equity Nacbracs Link

GnuBg 0.xx 2-ply Supremo vs. 0-ply 840370571 –005 [$ U52] /14 Neil Kazaross

GnuBg 0.xx 2-ply [BGO 46k + Stick 46k] [Not posted] [$ U3 D28 S34] /92 46 5 [GnuBg Aggregate]

GnuBg 0.xx 2-ply [BGO 46k + Stick 46k] [Not posted] [$ U3] /92 46 [Aggregate]

GnuBg 0.xx 2-ply $: 1014085266, DSU: 1028346752 –153.9 [$ U5 D30 S36] /46*5 Stick

GnuBg 0.xx 2-ply [Not posted] [Unknown] [$] /46 Stick

GnuBg 0.xx 2-ply 1028346752 –157.2 [$ U1 D26 S32] /46*5 BgOnline.org

Snowie 4.x.x 3-ply [Not posted] [Not posted] [U $14 S20 D32 V39 W90] ~20**5 Nack Ballard

Snowie 4.x.x 3-ply [Not posted] [Not posted] [U $20 S23 D35] ~31*20 5 Nack Ballard

Snowie 4.x.x 3-ply [Random seed] [Not posted] [U $14 S20 D32] ~20**5 Nack Ballard

XG 1.11 3-ply, SI: Large 1296 –169 [U $1 V46] '<15*2 Andreas

XG 1.xx 3-ply [Aggregate 36k + Stick 15k] [Not posted] [U $9 S23 D30] '<51 [Aggregate]

XG 1.xx 3-ply [Aggregate 36k + Stick 15k] [Not posted] [U $9] '<51 [Aggregate]

XG 1.xx 3-ply [Not posted] [Not posted] [U $12] '<36 Nack Ballard

XG 1.xx 3-ply [Not posted] [Not posted] [U $11 S22 D30 V46] '<62*15*2 Nack Ballard

XG 1.04 3-ply 1 –164.8 [U $12 S23 D30] '<36**9 Ken Bame

XG 1.xx 3-ply 1296 –169 [U $1] '<15 Stick

XG 1.11 4-ply 1 –164 [U $6] '^15 Neil Kazaross

XG 2.10 3-ply, Cubes: XGR 90680458, 27207905 –164.8 [U $9 D21 S22 V41] "<=46***10 XG Opening Book, v. 3.7

XG 2.10 3-ply, Cubes: XGR 90680458 –164.8 [U $9 D21 S22] "<=46 Steven Carey

XG 2.00 3-ply 27207905 –162.7 j[U $11 D24 S25 V43] "<62*31 10 David Rockwell

51S-21 — Double Match Point
Bot Seed Equity Nacbracs Link

GnuBg 0.xx 2-ply [Not posted] [Not posted] d[$ U13 S22] /15*5 Nack Ballard

GnuBg 0.xx 2-ply 827865876 –52.362 d[$ U10 S22] /5 Stick

XG 1.xx 3-ply 1296 –60.7 d[$ U6] '<5 Stick

XG 2.xx 3-ply, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross 53110121 –55.8 d[$ U13 S19 D20 V32] "<20*15 10 5 David Rockwell

XG 2.03 4-ply, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross 102030 –54.0 d[$ U15 S21] "^10 Dmitriy Obukhov

51S-21 — Gammon Go
Bot Seed Equity Nacbracs Link

GnuBg 0.xx 2-ply 810946483 +214.528 g[$ D36 S42 U48] /5 Stick

XG 2.xx 3-ply, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross 47486653 +202.0 g[$ D25 U34 S38] "<15*10 5 David Rockwell

51S-21 — Gammon Save
Bot Seed Equity Nacbracs Link

XG 2.xx 3-ply, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross 96974674 –379.4 s[U $10 D16 S22 V31] "<31*20 15 10 David Rockwell

51S-21 — According to Score
Bot Seed Equity Nacbracs Link

XG 2.xx 3-ply, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross 57020913 –177.8 –3–3 [$ U12 D27 S34] "<62*31 15 David Rockwell

I waited to post this, hoping someone had made a 4-ply rollout, but it looks like we have nothing stronger than the XG Opening Book. As David points out, that's probably not a big deal. Although the margins might change, it is unlikely that a 4-ply rollout would overturn the ranking of plays.

Note that slotting is correct, both at DMP and gammon-go. Even at gammon-save, slotting trails by only 10 millipoints.
Mike

51S-21 — Unlimited Game
Bot	Seed	Equity	Nacbracs	Link
GnuBg 0.xx 2-ply Supremo vs. 0-ply	840370571	–005	[$ U52] /14	Neil Kazaross
GnuBg 0.xx 2-ply	[BGO 46k + Stick 46k]	[Not posted]	[$ U3 D28 S34] /92 46 5	[GnuBg Aggregate]
GnuBg 0.xx 2-ply	[BGO 46k + Stick 46k]	[Not posted]	[$ U3] /92 46	[Aggregate]
GnuBg 0.xx 2-ply	$: 1014085266, DSU: 1028346752	–153.9	[$ U5 D30 S36] /46*5	Stick
GnuBg 0.xx 2-ply	[Not posted]	[Unknown]	[$] /46	Stick
GnuBg 0.xx 2-ply	1028346752	–157.2	[$ U1 D26 S32] /46*5	BgOnline.org
Snowie 4.x.x 3-ply	[Not posted]	[Not posted]	[U $14 S20 D32 V39 W90] ~20**5	Nack Ballard
Snowie 4.x.x 3-ply	[Not posted]	[Not posted]	[U $20 S23 D35] ~31*20 5	Nack Ballard
Snowie 4.x.x 3-ply	[Random seed]	[Not posted]	[U $14 S20 D32] ~20**5	Nack Ballard
XG 1.11 3-ply, SI: Large	1296	–169	[U $1 V46] '<15*2	Andreas
XG 1.xx 3-ply	[Aggregate 36k + Stick 15k]	[Not posted]	[U $9 S23 D30] '<51	[Aggregate]
XG 1.xx 3-ply	[Aggregate 36k + Stick 15k]	[Not posted]	[U $9] '<51	[Aggregate]
XG 1.xx 3-ply	[Not posted]	[Not posted]	[U $12] '<36	Nack Ballard
XG 1.xx 3-ply	[Not posted]	[Not posted]	[U $11 S22 D30 V46] '<62152	Nack Ballard
XG 1.04 3-ply	1	–164.8	[U $12 S23 D30] '<36**9	Ken Bame
XG 1.xx 3-ply	1296	–169	[U $1] '<15	Stick
XG 1.11 4-ply	1	–164	[U $6] '^15	Neil Kazaross
XG 2.10 3-ply, Cubes: XGR	90680458, 27207905	–164.8	[U $9 D21 S22 V41] "<=46***10	XG Opening Book, v. 3.7
XG 2.10 3-ply, Cubes: XGR	90680458	–164.8	[U $9 D21 S22] "<=46	Steven Carey
XG 2.00 3-ply	27207905	–162.7	j[U $11 D24 S25 V43] "<62*31 10	David Rockwell

51S-21 — Double Match Point
Bot	Seed	Equity	Nacbracs	Link
GnuBg 0.xx 2-ply	[Not posted]	[Not posted]	d[$ U13 S22] /15*5	Nack Ballard
GnuBg 0.xx 2-ply	827865876	–52.362	d[$ U10 S22] /5	Stick
XG 1.xx 3-ply	1296	–60.7	d[$ U6] '<5	Stick
XG 2.xx 3-ply, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross	53110121	–55.8	d[$ U13 S19 D20 V32] "<20*15 10 5	David Rockwell
XG 2.03 4-ply, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross	102030	–54.0	d[$ U15 S21] "^10	Dmitriy Obukhov

51S-21 — Gammon Go
Bot	Seed	Equity	Nacbracs	Link
GnuBg 0.xx 2-ply	810946483	+214.528	g[$ D36 S42 U48] /5	Stick
XG 2.xx 3-ply, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross	47486653	+202.0	g[$ D25 U34 S38] "<15*10 5	David Rockwell

51S-21 — Gammon Save
Bot	Seed	Equity	Nacbracs	Link
XG 2.xx 3-ply, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross	96974674	–379.4	s[U $10 D16 S22 V31] "<31*20 15 10	David Rockwell

51S-21 — According to Score
Bot	Seed	Equity	Nacbracs	Link
XG 2.xx 3-ply, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross	57020913	–177.8	–3–3 [$ U12 D27 S34] "<62*31 15	David Rockwell

Messages In This Thread

That old chestnut, 51S-21
Timothy Chow -- Monday, 15 August 2016, at 5:25 p.m.
- That old chestnut, 51S-21
  David Rockwell -- Monday, 15 August 2016, at 7:07 p.m.
  - That old chestnut, 51S-21
    neilkaz -- Monday, 15 August 2016, at 11:12 p.m.
    - That old chestnut, 51S-21
      David Rockwell -- Tuesday, 16 August 2016, at 1:34 a.m.
      - That old chestnut, 51S-21
        neilkaz -- Tuesday, 16 August 2016, at 3:43 a.m.
- 51S-21 – Unlimited with Jacoby – XG2 3-ply Rollout
  Taper_Mike -- Monday, 15 August 2016, at 7:28 p.m.
- 51S-21 – Index to Rollouts
  Taper_Mike -- Sunday, 21 August 2016, at 7:54 p.m.

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