I've been too busy lately to frequent bgonline, but I had saved a Tim position from July. He included short rollouts for money, DMP and gammon go, and suggested that a fourth play might be best at gammon save. Indeed, my XG rollout (not shown) backs that up, though by only .004. Therefore, even if sufficient extensions of the other three rollouts clear their respective .010, .0045 and .007 ("tied") margins, it falls short of an R4 (Real four-score position). Still, a T4 (Technical four-score position), though not nearly as rare as an R4, is in itself a gem.
I discovered a variant position that does qualify as a R4 (real four-score position); I'm finally getting around to posting it. (Many closely similar positions are T4's.) The adjustments from Tim's original position are: (a) Two of Blue's 7pt checkers are moved to his 8pt. (b) Blue's third 7pt checker is moved to his 6pt. (c) White's 17pt checker is moved to her 11pt. And (d) White's two 4pt checkers are moved to her 5pt.
The power rating for this R4 is [sqrt 24 + sqrt 20*18/9 + sqrt 10*34/7 + sqrt 10*16/7] = 22.97. To compare to the power ratings of other R4's, click here and scroll to the bottom.
Detailed rollout results follow (all with 3-ply checker play, XGR cube).
Nack
Money
| 1. | Rollout1 | 6/5* 5/1 | eq: -0.637 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 32.45% (G:5.67% B:0.13%)
67.55% (G:11.74% B:0.28%) | Conf.: กำ 0.004 (-0.640...-0.633) - [100.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 30 minutes |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 6/2 6/5* | eq: -0.661 (-0.024) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 33.20% (G:7.53% B:0.19%)
66.80% (G:18.55% B:0.47%) | Conf.: กำ 0.006 (-0.667...-0.655) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 44 minutes |
|
| 3. | Rollout2 | 6/2 3/2 | eq: -0.744 (-0.108) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 28.83% (G:2.09% B:0.03%)
71.17% (G:4.62% B:0.12%) | Conf.: กำ 0.007 (-0.751...-0.738) - [0.0%]
Duration: 16 minutes 32 seconds |
|
| 4. | Rollout3 | 6/1 | eq: -0.772 (-0.135) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 27.98% (G:2.04% B:0.04%)
72.02% (G:5.76% B:0.20%) | Conf.: กำ 0.010 (-0.782...-0.762) - [0.0%]
Duration: 8 minutes 38 seconds |
|
| 5. | Rollout3 | 8/4 6/5* | eq: -0.788 (-0.151) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 31.25% (G:6.44% B:0.17%)
68.75% (G:18.50% B:0.50%) | Conf.: กำ 0.014 (-0.802...-0.774) - [0.0%]
Duration: 11 minutes 52 seconds |
|
| |
1 10368 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
2 2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
3 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
DMP
         
 
        
 | | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 99 | | 1 point match | pip: 113
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=---CBaF-B-----a-bb-cb-Bbb-:0:0:1:41:0:0:0:1:10 |
| Blue to play 41 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 6/2 6/5* | eq: -0.324 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 33.82% (G:6.30% B:0.25%)
66.18% (G:23.01% B:1.10%) | Conf.: กำ 0.002 (-0.326...-0.322) - [100.0%]
Duration: 52 minutes 11 seconds |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 6/5* 5/1 | eq: -0.342 (-0.018) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 32.92% (G:4.99% B:0.16%)
67.08% (G:14.46% B:0.47%) | Conf.: กำ 0.002 (-0.344...-0.340) - [0.0%]
Duration: 44 minutes 50 seconds |
|
| 3. | Rollout1 | 22/18 6/5* | eq: -0.367 (-0.043) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 31.65% (G:10.39% B:0.93%)
68.35% (G:36.10% B:0.86%) | Conf.: กำ 0.002 (-0.369...-0.365) - [0.0%]
Duration: 48 minutes 38 seconds |
|
| 4. | Rollout1 | 8/4 6/5* | eq: -0.373 (-0.049) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 31.36% (G:5.29% B:0.17%)
68.64% (G:19.83% B:0.86%) | Conf.: กำ 0.002 (-0.375...-0.371) - [0.0%]
Duration: 55 minutes 18 seconds |
|
| 5. | Rollout2 | 6/2 3/2 | eq: -0.427 (-0.103) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 28.67% (G:1.85% B:0.05%)
71.33% (G:4.17% B:0.10%) | Conf.: กำ 0.002 (-0.429...-0.424) - [0.0%]
Duration: 20 minutes 29 seconds |
|
| |
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
2 2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
Gammon Save
| | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 99 | 2 point match
Crawford | pip: 113
score: 1
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=---CBaF-B-----a-bb-cb-Bbb-:0:0:1:41:1:0:1:2:10 |
| Blue to play 41 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 6/2 3/2 | eq: -0.516 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 29.13% (G:2.15% B:0.05%)
70.87% (G:4.92% B:0.22%) | Conf.: กำ 0.002 (-0.517...-0.514) - [100.0%]
Duration: 24 minutes 37 seconds |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 6/1 | eq: -0.550 (-0.034) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 28.05% (G:2.14% B:0.05%)
71.95% (G:5.53% B:0.21%) | Conf.: กำ 0.002 (-0.551...-0.548) - [0.0%]
Duration: 23 minutes 36 seconds |
|
| 3. | Rollout1 | 6/5* 5/1 | eq: -0.577 (-0.061) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 32.71% (G:5.24% B:0.11%)
67.29% (G:11.54% B:0.91%) | Conf.: กำ 0.003 (-0.579...-0.574) - [0.0%]
Duration: 32 minutes 28 seconds |
|
| |
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
Gammon Go
| | White is Player 2
score: 1
pip: 99 | 2 point match
Crawford | pip: 113
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=---CBaF-B-----a-bb-cb-Bbb-:0:0:1:41:0:1:1:2:10 |
| Blue to play 41 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 22/18 6/5* | eq: -0.159 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 32.15% (G:9.90% B:0.77%)
67.85% (G:33.19% B:0.91%) | Conf.: กำ 0.002 (-0.161...-0.157) - [100.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 12 minutes |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 6/2 6/5* | eq: -0.175 (-0.016) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 33.59% (G:7.67% B:0.41%)
66.41% (G:23.19% B:1.10%) | Conf.: กำ 0.002 (-0.177...-0.173) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 33 minutes |
|
| 3. | Rollout2 | 6/5* 5/1 | eq: -0.228 (-0.069) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 32.94% (G:5.65% B:0.29%)
67.06% (G:14.59% B:0.46%) | Conf.: กำ 0.003 (-0.232...-0.225) - [0.0%]
Duration: 17 minutes 43 seconds |
|
| 4. | Rollout2 | 8/4 6/5* | eq: -0.251 (-0.092) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 31.29% (G:6.16% B:0.31%)
68.71% (G:20.43% B:0.83%) | Conf.: กำ 0.004 (-0.255...-0.247) - [0.0%]
Duration: 18 minutes 21 seconds |
|
| 5. | Rollout3 | 6/2 3/2 | eq: -0.388 (-0.229) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 28.61% (G:1.96% B:0.07%)
71.39% (G:4.30% B:0.07%) | Conf.: กำ 0.003 (-0.392...-0.385) - [0.0%]
Duration: 5 minutes 32 seconds |
|
| |
1 10368 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
2 2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
3 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|