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Theory on what to do following loose hit on 1 point early in game

Posted By: leobueno
Date: Saturday, 10 December 2016, at 7:19 p.m.

Take a look at this position. XG says that hitting loose on the 1 point is the correct play.

Here is the problem: donkeys like me don't know how to deal with the resulting blot on the 1 point.

Keeping in mind that there are probably no applicable hard and fast rules, the question still is: what are your plans, as a general principle, for the blot?

For example, do you attempt to cover it ASAP or hope that it gets hit later on to circulate the checker?

 White is Cercopes score: 2 pip: 152 7 point match pip: 161 score: 4 Blue is leobueno
XGID=-a---aE-D---dD---c-d-b-AA-:0:0:1:54:4:2:0:7:10
Blue to play 54
1.Rollout124/20 6/1* eq: -0.551
 Player:Opponent: 39.42% (G:9.08% B:1.03%)60.58% (G:18.81% B:0.75%) Conf.: ± 0.020 (-0.571...-0.532) - [100.0%]Duration: 3 minutes 28 seconds
2.Rollout224/20 13/8eq: -0.617 (-0.066)
 Player:Opponent: 38.78% (G:10.00% B:1.09%)61.22% (G:20.66% B:0.70%) Conf.: ± 0.024 (-0.641...-0.593) - [0.0%]Duration: 2 minutes 08 seconds
3.Rollout323/14eq: -0.667 (-0.115)
 Player:Opponent: 38.71% (G:8.64% B:0.92%)61.29% (G:21.52% B:0.61%) Conf.: ± 0.020 (-0.687...-0.646) - [0.0%]Duration: 2 minutes 51 seconds
4.Rollout324/15eq: -0.668 (-0.117)
 Player:Opponent: 38.60% (G:8.74% B:0.89%)61.40% (G:21.92% B:0.56%) Conf.: ± 0.024 (-0.692...-0.644) - [0.0%]Duration: 2 minutes 10 seconds
5.XG Roller+13/4eq: -0.661 (-0.109)
 Player:Opponent: 38.05% (G:8.65% B:0.37%)61.95% (G:20.85% B:1.01%)
6.XG Roller+24/20 23/18eq: -0.673 (-0.122)
 Player:Opponent: 38.50% (G:7.38% B:0.30%)61.50% (G:22.18% B:0.65%)
7.XG Roller+13/8 6/2eq: -0.703 (-0.151)
 Player:Opponent: 37.10% (G:8.74% B:0.35%)62.90% (G:20.95% B:0.96%)
8.XG Roller+13/9 13/8eq: -0.713 (-0.162)
 Player:Opponent: 36.59% (G:9.08% B:0.37%)63.41% (G:20.15% B:1.06%)
1 605 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

2 607 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

3 606 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

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