A tough call, I think, especially if you look at the variants below.
         
 
          
 | | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 143 | | Unlimited Game | pip: 153
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=-a-aBBC-B-A-cB---cAcb-bAA-:0:0:1:21:0:0:0:0:10 |
| Blue to play 21 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 6/3* | eq: -0.151 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 49.06% (G:16.77% B:0.98%)
50.94% (G:26.09% B:3.29%) | Conf.: ± 0.010 (-0.160...-0.141) - [100.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 14 minutes |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 24/23 10/8 | eq: -0.187 (-0.036) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 45.39% (G:13.57% B:0.63%)
54.61% (G:17.18% B:0.96%) | Conf.: ± 0.008 (-0.195...-0.179) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 13 minutes |
|
| 3. | Rollout1 | 24/23 18/16 | eq: -0.189 (-0.039) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 45.97% (G:13.39% B:0.56%)
54.03% (G:18.24% B:1.16%) | Conf.: ± 0.007 (-0.197...-0.182) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 16 minutes |
|
| 4. | Rollout2 | 10/8 6/5 | eq: -0.215 (-0.065) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 46.33% (G:14.64% B:0.82%)
53.67% (G:23.32% B:1.44%) | Conf.: ± 0.017 (-0.232...-0.198) - [0.0%]
Duration: 16 minutes 12 seconds |
|
| |
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.208.pre-release
Variant 1:
 
| | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 140 | | Unlimited Game | pip: 153
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=-a-aBBC-B-A-cB---bAcc-bAA-:0:0:1:21:0:0:0:0:10 |
| Blue to play 21 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 24/23 10/8 | eq: -0.090 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 47.79% (G:14.14% B:0.65%)
52.21% (G:16.65% B:0.90%) | Conf.: ± 0.013 (-0.103...-0.076) - [100.0%]
Duration: 22 minutes 57 seconds |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 24/23 18/16 | eq: -0.171 (-0.081) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 46.25% (G:13.83% B:0.57%)
53.75% (G:18.63% B:1.22%) | Conf.: ± 0.016 (-0.186...-0.155) - [0.0%]
Duration: 23 minutes 55 seconds |
|
| 3. | Rollout1 | 6/3* | eq: -0.197 (-0.107) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 48.21% (G:16.32% B:1.01%)
51.79% (G:28.88% B:3.79%) | Conf.: ± 0.017 (-0.214...-0.180) - [0.0%]
Duration: 21 minutes 41 seconds |
|
| |
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.208.pre-release
Variant 2:
| | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 135 | | Unlimited Game | pip: 153
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=-a-aBBC-B-A-bB---cAcc-bAA-:0:0:1:21:0:0:0:0:10 |
| Blue to play 21 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 24/23 18/16 | eq: -0.103 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 48.03% (G:14.27% B:0.66%)
51.97% (G:18.17% B:1.20%) | Conf.: ± 0.017 (-0.120...-0.087) - [100.0%]
Duration: 17 minutes 03 seconds |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 24/23 10/8 | eq: -0.151 (-0.047) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 47.08% (G:13.55% B:0.64%)
52.92% (G:18.05% B:0.99%) | Conf.: ± 0.013 (-0.164...-0.137) - [0.0%]
Duration: 16 minutes 28 seconds |
|
| 3. | Rollout1 | 6/3* | eq: -0.206 (-0.103) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 48.49% (G:16.09% B:0.90%)
51.51% (G:29.80% B:4.05%) | Conf.: ± 0.016 (-0.222...-0.190) - [0.0%]
Duration: 16 minutes 37 seconds |
|
| |
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.208.pre-release