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Rollout and variant

Posted By: Timothy Chow
Date: Tuesday, 11 April 2017, at 11:21 p.m.

In Response To: Gappy prime containment cube (Timothy Chow)

Not quite 24 hours but since Mike Clapsadle went ahead and posted a rollout anyway, I'm posting now.

My variant is different from Mike's, and I was surprised at how big the equity swing was.





White is Player 1

score: 0
pip: 90
Unlimited Game
pip: 108
score: 0

Blue is Player 2
XGID=--aBC-BBB--B-B---babbd-c--:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 72.53% (G:4.97% B:0.16%) 72.80% (G:4.90% B:0.17%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 27.47% (G:4.79% B:0.09%) 27.20% (G:4.58% B:0.08%)
Cubeless Equities +0.453 +0.920
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.755 (-0.033)±0.009 (+0.746..+0.764)
Double/Take:+0.788±0.010 (+0.779..+0.798)
Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.212)
Best Cube action: Double / Take
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 12 minutes 49 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.208.pre-release

Variant:





White is Player 1

score: 0
pip: 90
Unlimited Game
pip: 110
score: 0

Blue is Player 2
XGID=--aBB-CBB--B-B---babbd-c--:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 77.19% (G:4.93% B:0.13%) 78.36% (G:5.75% B:0.19%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 22.81% (G:3.36% B:0.04%) 21.64% (G:3.64% B:0.05%)
Cubeless Equities +0.560 +1.179
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.869 (-0.131)±0.005 (+0.864..+0.873)
Double/Take:+1.075 (+0.075)±0.010 (+1.064..+1.085)
Double/Pass:+1.000
Best Cube action: Double / Pass
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 13 minutes 27 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.208.pre-release

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