The score make this one particularly difficult to evaluate OTB. A key observation is that after the hit, White is supposed to double. So White gets full value for her gammon and backgammon wins. The rollout slightly favors playing safe. Compare this with money, where hitting is massively correct.
           
 
         
 | | White is Player 2
score: 1
pip: 97 | | 7 point match | pip: 130
score: 3
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=--BABBBbA----B-Aaa-bdbBab-:0:0:1:42:3:1:0:7:10 |
| Blue to play 42 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 15/13 8/4 | eq: -0.124 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 46.16% (G:10.50% B:0.53%)
53.84% (G:12.91% B:0.31%) | Conf.: ± 0.006 (-0.130...-0.118) - [100.0%]
Duration: 35 minutes 50 seconds |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 22/16* | eq: -0.152 (-0.028) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 50.41% (G:22.32% B:2.54%)
49.59% (G:31.25% B:5.37%) | Conf.: ± 0.013 (-0.164...-0.139) - [0.0%]
Duration: 45 minutes 05 seconds |
|
| |
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.208.pre-release, MET: Kazaross XG2
Rollout statistics after 22/16*:
22/16* Non VR Equity: -0.163 (Cost: +63.34%)
Cube Win BG Win G Win S Cash Pass Lose S Lose G Lose BG D/T D/P Take % D/T D/P Take %
1 5,184 100.00%
2 146 918 16 1,308 728 1,368 276 424 1,308 24.48%
4 3 1 2 2 416 1 99.76%
8 8 36.45 295.26 68.02 8.28
Money:
| | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 97 | | Unlimited Game | pip: 130
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=--BABBBbA----B-Aaa-bdbBab-:0:0:1:42:0:0:0:0:10 |
| Blue to play 42 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 22/16* | eq: +0.071 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 50.38% (G:23.50% B:1.05%)
49.62% (G:32.10% B:5.11%) | Conf.: ± 0.014 (+0.057...+0.085) - [100.0%]
Duration: 8 minutes 18 seconds |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 15/13 8/4 | eq: -0.122 (-0.193) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 46.32% (G:10.65% B:0.38%)
53.68% (G:13.01% B:0.28%) | Conf.: ± 0.010 (-0.132...-0.112) - [0.0%]
Duration: 8 minutes 41 seconds |
|
| |
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.208.pre-release