I wouldn't reflexively make the 5 point here, because the need to unstack, but I'm kind of surprised at how big the error is. After you bring two down, your goal is probably going to be making the 5 point next anyhow. 2 down does help work on making the bar, but white has two checkers back so I'm not sure making the bar is as important as if they only had 1 checker back.
        
 
         
 | | White is Mike Clapsadle
score: 0
pip: 149 | Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver | pip: 142
score: 0
Blue is Champion |
|
| XGID=---ABBB-B---fD-a-c-e----B-:0:0:-1:53:0:0:3:0:10 |
| Blue to play 53 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 13/10 13/8 | eq: +0.461 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 62.40% (G:7.75% B:0.23%)
37.60% (G:6.87% B:0.17%) | Conf.: ± 0.010 (+0.451...+0.471) - [100.0%]
Duration: 24 minutes 02 seconds |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 10/5 8/5 | eq: +0.425 (-0.036) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 61.72% (G:9.13% B:0.30%)
38.28% (G:7.78% B:0.19%) | Conf.: ± 0.011 (+0.414...+0.436) - [0.0%]
Duration: 21 minutes 43 seconds |
|
| 3. | Rollout1 | 8/3 6/3 | eq: +0.276 (-0.185) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 57.56% (G:9.61% B:0.34%)
42.44% (G:10.37% B:0.26%) | Conf.: ± 0.011 (+0.265...+0.286) - [0.0%]
Duration: 22 minutes 46 seconds |
|
| |
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves and cube decisions: 3-ply
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10