BGonline.org Forums

Rollout ATS and for money

Posted By: Timothy Chow
Date: Wednesday, 31 May 2017, at 11:31 p.m.

In Response To: Fifteen against one isn't a fair fight (Timothy Chow)

According to the rollout, this is a small double for money but but a small no double ATS.

		White is Player 2 score: 5 pip: 65 7 point match pip: 95 score: 2 Blue is Player 1
XGID=-Ba-BBCABA-A--A------fdbb-:0:0:1:00:2:5:0:7:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout	No double	Double/Take
Player Winning Chances:	74.65% (G:1.93% B:0.04%)	74.70% (G:2.00% B:0.04%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	25.35% (G:2.60% B:0.04%)	25.30% (G:2.97% B:0.02%)
Cubeless Equities	+0.461	+0.695
Cubeful Equities
No double:	+0.733	±0.006 (+0.727..+0.739)
Double/Take:	+0.695 (-0.038)	±0.006 (+0.688..+0.701)
Double/Pass:	+1.000 (+0.267)
Best Cube action: No double / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 11.1%
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 271828 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:		100.0%
Take Decision confidence:		100.0%
Duration: 2 minutes 46 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.208.pre-release, MET: Kazaross XG2

---

Money:

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 65 Unlimited Game pip: 95 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=-Ba-BBCABA-A--A------fdbb-:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout	No double	Double/Take
Player Winning Chances:	74.49% (G:1.94% B:0.04%)	74.83% (G:1.92% B:0.04%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	25.51% (G:2.06% B:0.02%)	25.17% (G:2.26% B:0.02%)
Cubeless Equities	+0.489	+0.987
Cubeful Equities
No double:	+0.814 (-0.040)	±0.004 (+0.810..+0.819)
Double/Take:	+0.854	±0.008 (+0.847..+0.862)
Double/Pass:	+1.000 (+0.146)
Best Cube action: Double / Take
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 271828 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:		100.0%
Take Decision confidence:		100.0%
Duration: 2 minutes 40 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.208.pre-release

Messages In This Thread

• Fifteen against one isn't a fair fight
  Timothy Chow -- Tuesday, 30 May 2017, at 10:19 p.m.
  • Fifteen against one isn't a fair fight
    scotty -- Wednesday, 31 May 2017, at 3:49 a.m.
  • Fifteen against one isn't a fair fight
    Karol Szczerek -- Wednesday, 31 May 2017, at 5:26 a.m.
  • Fifteen against one isn't a fair fight
    ah_clem -- Wednesday, 31 May 2017, at 12:56 p.m.
  • Fifteen against one isn't a fair fight
    neilkaz -- Wednesday, 31 May 2017, at 3:04 p.m.
  • it isn't fair
    garyo -- Wednesday, 31 May 2017, at 8:43 p.m.
  • Fifteen against one isn't a fair fight
    Michael -- Wednesday, 31 May 2017, at 10:21 p.m.
    • Fifteen against one isn't a fair fight
      Michael -- Wednesday, 31 May 2017, at 10:32 p.m.
      • Fifteen against one isn't a fair fight
        Bob Koca -- Wednesday, 31 May 2017, at 11:08 p.m.
  • Rollout ATS and for money
    Timothy Chow -- Wednesday, 31 May 2017, at 11:31 p.m.