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Fifteen against one isn't a fair fight

Posted By: Karol Szczerek
Date: Wednesday, 31 May 2017, at 5:26 a.m.

In Response To: Fifteen against one isn't a fair fight (Timothy Chow)

TP is 7/40 = 17.5%

Blue's made ace point and White's strong board (which is not going to crunch anytime soon) makes me guess-estimate the chances for White at about 20% level.

If low on time, I'd go with that number and double/take OTB.

If higher on time, I'd count rolls that cover the bar for a solid 5-prime or point on head and assign 17% winrate (I feel it's more than 15%, but not as high as 20%). Then count other rolls and assign 30% winrate.

So White's winrate would be 17% + 9/36 "other" rolls for an additional 13% = about 20%.

IF my estimations are correct, I'd go after a lesson from Neil & Stick and assume no double due to market loosers being tiny.

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