I thought I can't really blitz all-out with undeveloped back men behind a serious frontal structure of White. I thought I have to advance to 22pt. and then was considering tempo 4/2(2)* or building plays of either 13/9 or 11/9(2).
I've overlooked an important factor. White has only built his 5pt. so far, and the rest is just blots/builders - threatening to improve the block, but he won't be able to do that when he's on the bar. In fact, his outfield blot is a big liability right now. It makes blitz the right plan.
| 1. | Rollout1 | 4/2*(2) 3/1*(2) | eq: +0,208 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 52,35% (G:29,32% B:0,88%)
47,65% (G:16,18% B:1,20%) | Conf.: ± 0,017 (+0,192...+0,225) - [100,0%]
Duration: 8 minutes 25 seconds |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 24/22(2) 4/2*(2) | eq: +0,171 (-0,037) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 52,61% (G:19,76% B:1,01%)
47,39% (G:12,74% B:0,59%) | Conf.: ± 0,012 (+0,159...+0,183) - [0,0%]
Duration: 10 minutes 30 seconds |
|
| 3. | Rollout1 | 24/22(2) 3/1*(2) | eq: +0,140 (-0,069) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 52,12% (G:19,92% B:0,66%)
47,88% (G:12,86% B:0,57%) | Conf.: ± 0,013 (+0,126...+0,153) - [0,0%]
Duration: 9 minutes 50 seconds |
|
| 4. | Rollout1 | 24/22(2) 13/9 | eq: +0,137 (-0,071) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 52,25% (G:18,50% B:0,82%)
47,75% (G:12,40% B:0,59%) | Conf.: ± 0,014 (+0,123...+0,151) - [0,0%]
Duration: 10 minutes 35 seconds |
|
| 5. | Rollout1 | 11/7(2) | eq: +0,105 (-0,104) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 52,19% (G:20,20% B:0,94%)
47,81% (G:16,01% B:0,93%) | Conf.: ± 0,015 (+0,090...+0,119) - [0,0%]
Duration: 8 minutes 42 seconds |
|
| 6. | Rollout1 | 24/22(2) 11/9(2) | eq: +0,089 (-0,119) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 51,34% (G:16,19% B:0,69%)
48,66% (G:12,23% B:0,51%) | Conf.: ± 0,012 (+0,077...+0,102) - [0,0%]
Duration: 9 minutes 25 seconds |
|
| |
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
Below is the variant, where White's blot was moved from 10 to 8pt. This small change immediately makes the blitzing play wrong.
| 1. | Rollout1 | 11/7(2) | eq: +0,196 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 54,42% (G:20,21% B:0,86%)
45,58% (G:14,77% B:0,81%) | Conf.: ± 0,014 (+0,182...+0,211) - [56,2%]
Duration: 9 minutes 25 seconds |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 24/22(2) 13/9 | eq: +0,195 (-0,002) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 54,00% (G:18,09% B:0,74%)
46,00% (G:11,83% B:0,49%) | Conf.: ± 0,014 (+0,181...+0,208) - [43,8%]
Duration: 10 minutes 27 seconds |
|
| 3. | Rollout1 | 24/22(2) 11/9(2) | eq: +0,163 (-0,033) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 53,20% (G:16,95% B:0,61%)
46,80% (G:11,35% B:0,44%) | Conf.: ± 0,013 (+0,150...+0,176) - [0,0%]
Duration: 9 minutes 42 seconds |
|
| 4. | Rollout1 | 24/22(2) 3/1*(2) | eq: +0,150 (-0,047) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 52,37% (G:19,25% B:0,45%)
47,63% (G:12,58% B:0,55%) | Conf.: ± 0,013 (+0,137...+0,163) - [0,0%]
Duration: 9 minutes 44 seconds |
|
| 5. | Rollout1 | 24/22(2) 4/2*(2) | eq: +0,149 (-0,047) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 52,30% (G:19,65% B:0,76%)
47,70% (G:12,77% B:0,57%) | Conf.: ± 0,016 (+0,132...+0,165) - [0,0%]
Duration: 10 minutes 00 second |
|
| 6. | Rollout1 | 4/2*(2) 3/1*(2) | eq: +0,132 (-0,064) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 50,77% (G:28,15% B:0,33%)
49,23% (G:16,57% B:1,12%) | Conf.: ± 0,014 (+0,118...+0,147) - [0,0%]
Duration: 8 minutes 09 seconds |
|
| |
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
