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Cube action at 3a-2a -- Rollout and Variant

Posted By: Nack Ballard
Date: Monday, 17 July 2017, at 6:54 a.m.

In Response To: OTB & RO (John O'Hagan)

		White is Player 2 score: 1 pip: 107 3 point match pip: 98 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=--BCBCB-----bB-aac-d-bb-A-:0:0:1:00:0:1:0:3:10
Original position

Analyzed in Rollout	No double	Double/Take
Player Winning Chances:	51.62% (G:14.29% B:0.23%)	51.80% (G:13.34% B:0.47%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	48.38% (G:3.39% B:0.16%)	48.20% (G:2.89% B:0.10%)
Cubeless Equities	+0.173	+0.154
Cubeful Equities
No double:	+0.102 (-0.052)	±0.009 (+0.093..+0.111)
Double/Take:	+0.154	±0.009 (+0.145..+0.163)
Double/Pass:	+1.000 (+0.846)
Best Cube action: Double / Take
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:		100.0%
Take Decision confidence:		100.0%
Duration: 12 minutes 22 seconds

John's rollout of his original position appears above.

A contrasting variant is shown below.

Nack

		White is Player 2 score: 1 pip: 108 3 point match pip: 98 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=--BCBCB-----bBa-ac-d-bb-A-:0:0:1:00:0:1:0:3:10
Variant (White is adjusted by 10/11)

Analyzed in Rollout	No double	Double/Take
Player Winning Chances:	49.49% (G:11.64% B:0.18%)	49.53% (G:10.86% B:0.26%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	50.51% (G:3.30% B:0.07%)	50.47% (G:2.60% B:0.07%)
Cubeless Equities	+0.093	-0.032
Cubeful Equities
No double:	+0.025	±0.006 (+0.018..+0.031)
Double/Take:	-0.032 (-0.057)	±0.007 (-0.039..-0.026)
Double/Pass:	+1.000 (+0.975)
Best Cube action: No double / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 5.2%
Rollout details
2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 74931287 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:		100.0%
Take Decision confidence:		100.0%
Duration: 8 minutes 46 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Messages In This Thread

• Cube action at 3a-2a?
  John O'Hagan -- Saturday, 15 July 2017, at 7:44 p.m.
  • Cube action at 3a-2a?
    Sean Garber -- Saturday, 15 July 2017, at 8:04 p.m.
  • Cube action at 3a-2a?
    Michael -- Saturday, 15 July 2017, at 8:53 p.m.
    • Cube action at 3a-2a?
      Bob Koca -- Saturday, 15 July 2017, at 9:38 p.m.
      • Cube action at 3a-2a?
        Michael -- Sunday, 16 July 2017, at 1:33 p.m.
        • Cube action at 3a-2a?
          Michael -- Sunday, 16 July 2017, at 2:10 p.m.
    • Cube action at 3a-2a?
      Bob Koca -- Saturday, 15 July 2017, at 9:44 p.m.
      • Cube action at 3a-2a?
        Sean Garber -- Saturday, 15 July 2017, at 10:42 p.m.
        • Cube action at 3a-2a?
          Bob Koca -- Saturday, 15 July 2017, at 11:04 p.m.
  • OTB & RO
    John O'Hagan -- Monday, 17 July 2017, at 1:05 a.m.
    • Cube action at 3a-2a -- Rollout and Variant
      Nack Ballard -- Monday, 17 July 2017, at 6:54 a.m.
      • Cube action at 3a-2a -- Rollout and Variant
        John O'Hagan -- Monday, 17 July 2017, at 9:51 p.m.
        • Cube action at 3a-2a -- Rollout and Variant
          Michael -- Tuesday, 18 July 2017, at 10:31 a.m.
        • Shouldn't ignore killing of opponent cube power
          Bob Koca -- Wednesday, 19 July 2017, at 6:01 p.m.