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OTB & RO

Posted By: John O'Hagan
Date: Monday, 17 July 2017, at 1:05 a.m.

In Response To: Cube action at 3a-2a? (John O'Hagan)

The normal O'H 9 market loser rule doesn't apply for the trailer when the leader is 2a. The trailer can double quite a bit sooner at these scores. In positions like this where g's are possible, I've found this to be a real good guide: The trailer can double if he has 3 or 4 market losers and if he's within 8% of the leader's gammon-adjusted takepoint. If he has more than 3 or 4, he can double even sooner.

Leader's tp ats is 26% a+ 48% of trailer's g's. OTB, I guessed about 10% g's for Blue so the tp is ~31%. 31% for the opponent is 69% for me so 61% would be "within 8%." I was sure I didn't win this often but I also clearly had way more than 3 or 4 market losers. 7 numbers hit while 64 and 65 together lose the market about another 2 times for a total of 9 mkt losers. How about anti-jokers? 61 and 51 are pretty bad but I wouldn't count them as anti-jokers. Another problem with doubling is that I'm not doing ok on the 25 other rolls - I'm a clear underdog. OTB I gave myself 9 wins out of my 11 good rolls and 10 of the other 25 for a total of 19 wins in 36 games. So the oppt wins ~47% which means I'm 16% away from his takepoint. I was playing XG when this position came up and decided that it might or might not be a cube vs. an even player but very likely is against a better oppt since my position figures to be pretty easy to play.

The RO shows that D/T is correct against an even opponent as well:





White is Player 2

score: 1
pip: 107
3 point match
pip: 98
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=--BCBCB-----bB-aac-d-bb-A-:0:0:1:00:0:1:0:3:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 51.62% (G:14.29% B:0.23%) 51.80% (G:13.34% B:0.47%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 48.38% (G:3.39% B:0.16%) 48.20% (G:2.89% B:0.10%)
Cubeless Equities +0.173 +0.154
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.102 (-0.052)±0.009 (+0.093..+0.111)
Double/Take:+0.154±0.009 (+0.145..+0.163)
Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.846)
Best Cube action: Double / Take
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 12 minutes 22 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

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