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Your Thoughts Please

Posted By: Chris Bray
Date: Wednesday, 16 August 2017, at 10:15 a.m.

Below are two positions, the first from one of my games, the second kindly sent to me by Frank DiMaggio.

In both positions Blue should have cubed but didn't - the first position is a drop, the second a take.

All was well until the positions were put through XG. In both cases the hitting play wins a much higher percentage of games than the passive play but both are flagged as blunders. It would seem that XG favours future cube efficiency over immediate success. Admittedly if White fans in either position Blue has passed White's take point by a huge margin and thus Blue's cube is very inefficient but can future efficient use of the cube really outweigh such a large percentage increase in games won?

Your thoughts please.





White is Player B

score: 0
pip: 75
Unlimited Game
Jacoby
pip: 75
score: 0

Blue is Player A
XGID=-BBBaCC---C-a-------ccbcb-:0:0:1:52:0:0:1:0:10
Blue to play 52

1.Rollout110/3eq: +0.582
Player:
Opponent:		67.69% (G:0.96% B:0.01%)
32.31% (G:0.25% B:0.00%)		Conf.: ± 0.006 (+0.576...+0.589) - [100.0%]
Duration: 36.5 seconds
2.Rollout110/5 6/4* eq: +0.484 (-0.098)
Player:
Opponent:		73.20% (G:6.55% B:0.07%)
26.80% (G:1.15% B:0.01%)		Conf.: ± 0.002 (+0.482...+0.486) - [0.0%]
Duration: 24.7 seconds
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 18437926
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10
White is FRENCHKISS

score: 0
pip: 73
Unlimited Game
Jacoby
pip: 68
score: 0

Blue is Enigma52
XGID=-BaDCAB-BA-----a---abbcbc-:0:0:1:41:0:0:1:0:10
Blue to play 41

1.Rollout19/5 4/3eq: +0.853
Player:
Opponent:		74.87% (G:0.99% B:0.02%)
25.13% (G:0.53% B:0.01%)		Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.848...+0.859) - [100.0%]
Duration: 22.1 seconds
2.Rollout19/5 3/2* eq: +0.710 (-0.143)
Player:
Opponent:		80.63% (G:6.04% B:0.10%)
19.37% (G:0.73% B:0.01%)		Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.707...+0.713) - [0.0%]
Duration: 37.8 seconds
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 35841053
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

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