I used to be an English teacher, and while it was generally a very gratifying job, it was always a special treat when I got some later feedback that something I got across to someone at some point actually did some good. So in that spirit I'd like to share a match position from this weekend's Boston Open that I got right ONLY because I had read Stick's GammonVillage article "Mythbusters No. 6 - Stick's Doubling Rule for 3 away - 7 away or Greater." "Stick's Rule" has also been discussed here at some length.
So, here it was, me trailing 0-4 in a 7-point match (7-away 3-away) and my very able opponent sent the cube over in this position. I figured it was a pass for money, but it turns out to be right on the borderline (.994 per XG-1296 rollout). But I figured my re-cubes would be turbo-charged at this score -- even the immediate 11 or 44 rolls seemed heavy with promise! Sure enough, at this score it's the cube that's slender, as Stick's article would suggest (though you'll get a lot of passes too, making it a good move over the board).
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| XGID=--BABBC--A--aB-b-cbbBbc---:0:0:-1:00:0:4:0:7:10 | |||||
| White on roll, cube action? | |||||
| Analyzed in Rollout | No double | Double/Take |
| Player Winning Chances: | 77.69% (G:1.29% B:0.02%) | 77.94% (G:1.12% B:0.02%) |
| Opponent Winning Chances: | 22.31% (G:0.82% B:0.01%) | 22.06% (G:0.80% B:0.03%) |
| Cubeless Equities | +0.559 | +1.115 |
| Cubeful Equities | ||
| No double: | +0.876 (-0.025) | ±0.007 (+0.869..+0.883) |
| Double/Take: | +0.901 | ±0.009 (+0.892..+0.910) |
| Double/Pass: | +1.000 (+0.099) | |
| Best Cube action: Double / Take | ||
| Rollout details | ||
| 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller | ||
| Double Decision confidence: | 100.0% | |
| Take Decision confidence: | 100.0% | |
| Duration: 2 minutes 25 seconds | ||
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2
Before long my opponent rolled the horrorshow 55 leaving me with a gammonish ace-shot. And though I wasn't sure about it, I figured, well, this was the whole point of taking, right? So I cubed, rolled the ace and won a gammon for the match. (And went on to win the Jackpot)
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| XGID=-ABBCBB-A--------c-aBbbdc-:1:1:1:00:0:4:0:7:10 | |||||
| Blue on roll, cube action? | |||||
| Analyzed in Rollout | No redouble | Redouble/Take |
| Player Winning Chances: | 38.36% (G:4.48% B:0.06%) | 38.86% (G:4.41% B:0.11%) |
| Opponent Winning Chances: | 61.64% (G:1.80% B:0.00%) | 61.14% (G:2.40% B:0.01%) |
| Cubeless Equities | -0.194 | -0.047 |
| Cubeful Equities | ||
| No redouble: | -0.096 (-0.049) | ±0.003 (-0.099..-0.092) |
| Redouble/Take: | -0.047 | ±0.005 (-0.052..-0.042) |
| Redouble/Pass: | +1.000 (+1.047) | |
| Best Cube action: Redouble / Take | ||
| Rollout details | ||
| 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller | ||
| Double Decision confidence: | 100.0% | |
| Take Decision confidence: | 100.0% | |
| Duration: 36.7 seconds | ||
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2
I post this as a shout-out to Stick and the many others who put out instructional materials at all levels that make the game better for the people who want to learn. The great thing about this experience for me wasn't just getting it right, or winning the match, but that the entire game once I reached this score became a more intriguing drama -- would my opponent offer me a cube with plenty of contact remaining? I know that all of us, whatever level we play at, wish that we could help along other players -- whether friends, lovers, nieces or spouses -- to "see" more of what makes backgammon so intensely fascinating and pleasurable.
Thanks, Stick!