I'm used to counting races and employing basic percentages and the Keith count to get a read on whether a position is a double/take/drop, but I just realized I have hardly a clue how to make a rough estimate of simple race-winning chances. The reason I ask is that I've been working on these familiar 'final contact' cube situations where you miss a blot 6 pips away but still have around a 15% chance to hit the blot on your next turn because he can fail to get past you (see example here). So, I need to be able to look at the race and see whether I can eke out say 10% wins to make it to 25%. (Regarding any cube leverage I enjoy as an extra cushion, to keep it simple).
Can anyone out there suggest a method for roughly estimating racing chances as a simple %? If by the simple percentage method 12% is a pass, that must put it around 21%, yes? So is there a % that would roughly equate to 10% wins?
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| XGID=--BBBCC-A---a-----Bdccc-a-:1:-1:-1:00:0:0:3:0:10 | |||||
| White on roll, cube action? | |||||
| Analyzed in XG Roller++ | No redouble | Redouble/Take |
| Player Winning Chances: | 79.77% (G:0.16% B:0.00%) | 79.70% (G:0.27% B:0.00%) |
| Opponent Winning Chances: | 20.23% (G:0.45% B:0.01%) | 20.30% (G:0.45% B:0.01%) |
| Cubeless Equities | +0.592 | +1.184 |
| Cubeful Equities | ||
| No redouble: | +0.729 (-0.271) | |
| Redouble/Take: | +1.078 (+0.078) | |
| Redouble/Pass: | +1.000 | |
| Best Cube action: Redouble / Pass | ||
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10