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This rollout still leaves me with questions

Posted By: Nack Ballard
Date: Tuesday, 13 November 2018, at 8:53 p.m.

In Response To: This rollout still leaves me with questions (David Levy)

Jim notes that "White doesn’t want to get hit." That thought led me to the eighth (!) best play 9/7* 10/8 10/6, leaving 4 shots. Note that the top three plays all slot the five point. Note that the third best play slots BOTH the 5 and 4 points! I'm missing something--the extra shots don't seem to be worth it.

I believe that 9/7* 8/4 7/5 does well against safer (but weaker) plays because it has a higher win rate (28.70% vs 24.72% when comparing to 10/8 10/6 9/7*), and that more than compensates it for the extra backgammon losses (3.25% vs 0.85%). At this c7 score, all those gammons (39.39% vs 22.45%) cost only a free drop.

According to XGR++, at this score 9/7* 8/4 7/5 is third best and -.038 (or -.041 rolled out), compared to 10/8 10/6 9/7* being -.051 (or -.071 rolled out). For money (put cube on Blue's side), where all those gammons really hurt, 9/7* 8/4 7/5 is twelfth best and -.141, compared to 10/8 10/6 9/7* being third best and -.037.

Nack

Messages In This Thread

• 22 to play in poor ace-point game
  David Levy -- Saturday, 10 November 2018, at 4:56 p.m.
  • A interesting problem, yes, but certainly not a poor ace-point game at DMP
    Jim Stutz -- Saturday, 10 November 2018, at 10:58 p.m.
    • A interesting problem, yes, but certainly not a poor ace-point game at DMP
      neilkaz -- Sunday, 11 November 2018, at 12:28 a.m.
    • A poor ace-point game?
      David Levy -- Sunday, 11 November 2018, at 7:59 p.m.
  • 22 to play in poor ace-point game
    ah_clem -- Sunday, 11 November 2018, at 3:07 p.m.
  • 22 to play in poor ace-point game
    ah_clem -- Sunday, 11 November 2018, at 3:14 p.m.
  • 22 to play -- VARIANT (1 pip different)
    Nack Ballard -- Tuesday, 13 November 2018, at 5:50 p.m.
    • 22 to play -- VARIANT (1 pip different)
      ah_clem -- Tuesday, 13 November 2018, at 7:02 p.m.
    • 22 to play -- VARIANT (1 pip different)
      David Levy -- Tuesday, 13 November 2018, at 7:44 p.m.
      • 22 to play -- VARIANT (1 pip different)
        Nack Ballard -- Tuesday, 13 November 2018, at 8:01 p.m.
        • Help: 22 to play -- VARIANT (1 pip different)
          David Levy -- Wednesday, 14 November 2018, at 10:01 p.m.
          • 22 to play -- VARIANT (1 pip different) -- Rollouts and explanation
            Nack Ballard -- Thursday, 15 November 2018, at 12:34 a.m.
  • This rollout still leaves me with questions
    David Levy -- Tuesday, 13 November 2018, at 7:41 p.m.
    • This rollout still leaves me with questions
      Nack Ballard -- Tuesday, 13 November 2018, at 8:53 p.m.
    • Full disclosure, which will come as no surprise
      Jim Stutz -- Wednesday, 14 November 2018, at 7:47 a.m.
      • Full disclosure, which will come as no surprise
        ah_clem -- Wednesday, 14 November 2018, at 2:50 p.m.
      • Full disclosure, which will come as no surprise
        Albert Steg -- Wednesday, 14 November 2018, at 5:20 p.m.
      • Full disclosure, which will come as no surprise
        Fatboy -- Wednesday, 14 November 2018, at 5:38 p.m.