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bearoff blues #1 - Three Related Positions -- ROLLOUTS

Posted By: Nack Ballard
Date: Monday, 11 February 2019, at 6:23 a.m.

In Response To: bearoff blues #1 - Three Related Positions (Nack Ballard)





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 118
15 point match
pip: 44
score: 13

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-cB-CBC------------bbcbc--:1:-1:1:11:13:0:0:15:10

Position 1


1.Rollout15/3(2)eq: +0.510
Player:
Opponent:		84.85% (G:52.45% B:16.76%)
15.15% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)		Conf.: ± 0.002 (+0.508...+0.511) - [99.6%]
Duration: 6 minutes 07 seconds
2.Rollout16/3 4/3eq: +0.507 (-0.003)
Player:
Opponent:		84.75% (G:54.44% B:20.00%)
15.25% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)		Conf.: ± 0.002 (+0.505...+0.508) - [0.4%]
Duration: 6 minutes 04 seconds
3.Rollout26/5(2) 6/4eq: +0.451 (-0.059)
Player:
Opponent:		83.02% (G:50.16% B:15.61%)
16.98% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)		Conf.: ± 0.006 (+0.445...+0.456) - [0.0%]
Duration: 40.9 seconds
4.Rollout26/5 4/3(3)eq: +0.395 (-0.115)
Player:
Opponent:		81.30% (G:50.63% B:14.23%)
18.70% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)		Conf.: ± 0.006 (+0.389...+0.401) - [0.0%]
Duration: 44.1 seconds
1 15552 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 17427150
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 17427150
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller


Position 1 above is the same one Sebatolek originally posted (and again with a DMP score), except Blue's 2pt spare is instead on her 6pt. As you can see, this makes the decision extremely close, with the 5pt-to-3pt shift still (though barely) getting the nod.

Position 2 below is the same as position 1, except that White's 3pt spare is nudged forward 1 pip to her 2pt. This happens to be the tipping point, and it is making the five-prime that is a hair better (causing 32 to crack this time).






White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 117
1 point match
pip: 44
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-cB-CBC------------bbbcc--:0:0:1:11:0:0:0:1:10

Position 2 (White's 3pt spare is moved to her 2pt)


1.Rollout16/3 4/3eq: +0.714
Player:
Opponent:		85.69% (G:54.96% B:19.47%)
14.31% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)		Conf.: ± 0.001 (+0.712...+0.715) - [99.8%]
Duration: 3 minutes 12 seconds
2.Rollout15/3(2)eq: +0.711 (-0.002)
Player:
Opponent:		85.56% (G:52.53% B:16.44%)
14.44% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)		Conf.: ± 0.001 (+0.710...+0.712) - [0.2%]
Duration: 3 minutes 10 seconds
3.Rollout26/5(2) 6/4eq: +0.674 (-0.040)
Player:
Opponent:		83.69% (G:50.94% B:15.59%)
16.31% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)		Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.671...+0.677) - [0.0%]
Duration: 31.8 seconds
4.Rollout26/5 4/3(3)eq: +0.627 (-0.086)
Player:
Opponent:		81.36% (G:49.75% B:13.45%)
18.64% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)		Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.624...+0.631) - [0.0%]
Duration: 32.2 seconds
1 10368 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 17664275
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 17664275
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller


For position 3 below, the alteration to position 1 is that one of White's 24pt checkers is advanced to the 22pt. In this case, a third play emerges as the clear winner:






White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 116
1 point match
pip: 44
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-bBaCBC------------bbcbc--:0:0:1:11:0:0:0:1:10

Position 3 (A White 24pt checker is moved to her 22pt)


1.Rollout16/5(2) 6/4eq: +0.645
Player:
Opponent:		82.26% (G:48.43% B:13.62%)
17.74% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)		Conf.: ± 0.002 (+0.643...+0.647) - [100.0%]
Duration: 3 minutes 03 seconds
2.Rollout15/3*(2) eq: +0.617 (-0.028)
Player:
Opponent:		80.84% (G:52.67% B:19.46%)
19.16% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)		Conf.: ± 0.002 (+0.615...+0.619) - [0.0%]
Duration: 3 minutes 15 seconds
3.Rollout26/3* 4/3eq: +0.559 (-0.086)
Player:
Opponent:		77.95% (G:52.59% B:25.32%)
22.05% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)		Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.555...+0.563) - [0.0%]
Duration: 38.3 seconds
4.Rollout26/5 4/3*(3) eq: +0.520 (-0.125)
Player:
Opponent:		76.01% (G:48.54% B:17.19%)
23.99% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)		Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.516...+0.524) - [0.0%]
Duration: 44.6 seconds
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 17664275
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 17664275
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller


As certain White 5s no longer crack, Blue's priority is to make the safest play.

Nack

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