Your default in this situation should be clearing the midpoint as illustrated below.
          
 
          
 | | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 124 | Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver | pip: 107
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=-a--bDDCB----B--aa-bbcab--:1:-1:1:65:0:0:3:0:10 |
| Blue to play 65 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 13/8 13/7 | eq: +0.606 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 80.20% (G:8.17% B:0.14%)
19.80% (G:1.78% B:0.03%) | Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.601...+0.611) - [100.0%]
Duration: 1 minute 13 seconds |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 7/1* 6/1 | eq: +0.589 (-0.017) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 79.34% (G:7.81% B:0.13%)
20.66% (G:1.87% B:0.03%) | Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.585...+0.593) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 minute 24 seconds |
|
| |
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 73868036
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
Variant 1
With the opponent's board being cleaned up to the max it becomes somewhat clear to pull both of them down from the midpoint. The possible reasons I think are that it is harder for us to carry out an attack now if the opponent enters as we'll have to tiptoe a bit more and those indirects will be much more costly. Also, assume the opponent enters we still have to clear the midpoint and those indirect shots will be more costly since instead of a blotted board where he can't hit and cover, he has a flawless board where hitting us is essentially a win.
| | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 123 | Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver | pip: 107
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=-a--bDDCB----B--aa-bbbbb--:1:-1:1:65:0:0:3:0:10 |
| Blue to play 65 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 13/8 13/7 | eq: +0.604 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 80.04% (G:7.52% B:0.11%)
19.96% (G:1.78% B:0.03%) | Conf.: ± 0.007 (+0.597...+0.610) - [100.0%]
Duration: 37.5 seconds |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 7/1* 6/1 | eq: +0.558 (-0.045) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 78.32% (G:7.07% B:0.08%)
21.68% (G:1.94% B:0.03%) | Conf.: ± 0.006 (+0.552...+0.564) - [0.0%]
Duration: 44.4 seconds |
|
| |
1 648 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 21580805
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
Variant 2
If we put the opponent down a ton more pips now pointing on the ace point squeezes into the lead. The culprit is the obvious additional gammons we win thanks to the opponent having a lot more baggage to lug around the board to get off the gammon.
| | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 140 | Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver | pip: 107
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=-a--bDDCB----Baaaa-bbbb---:1:-1:1:65:0:0:3:0:10 |
| Blue to play 65 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 7/1* 6/1 | eq: +0.649 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 79.82% (G:14.09% B:0.15%)
20.18% (G:2.30% B:0.08%) | Conf.: ± 0.006 (+0.644...+0.655) - [99.9%]
Duration: 1 minute 56 seconds |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 13/8 13/7 | eq: +0.636 (-0.014) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 79.88% (G:12.65% B:0.13%)
20.12% (G:2.21% B:0.06%) | Conf.: ± 0.007 (+0.629...+0.642) - [0.1%]
Duration: 1 minute 38 seconds |
|
| |
1 972 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 21580805
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
Variant 3
If we make our board stronger you may think now it's certainly time to blitz a bit!? Well, it is nice in the sense that the opponent will dance more often however with clearing the midpoint we now clear out about half of the bad rolls we have thanks to the extra made point so it goes both ways.
 
| | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 124 | Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver | pip: 102
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=-a-BbCCCB----B--aa-bbcab--:1:-1:1:65:0:0:3:0:10 |
| Blue to play 65 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 13/8 13/7 | eq: +0.737 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 85.38% (G:7.88% B:0.10%)
14.62% (G:0.82% B:0.02%) | Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.731...+0.742) - [100.0%]
Duration: 46.5 seconds |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 7/1* 6/1 | eq: +0.694 (-0.043) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 82.99% (G:9.88% B:0.17%)
17.01% (G:1.32% B:0.02%) | Conf.: ± 0.006 (+0.688...+0.700) - [0.0%]
Duration: 53.0 seconds |
|
| |
1 648 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 21580805
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
Variant 4
You might think that with the two point made instead of the three point it would be better for the blitz as we push the opponent forward and his blot when entering not on the anchor is easier to reach/attack. The other side of the coin is once again now that none of our numbers are forced to leave a shot next turn after clearing the midpoint.
| | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 124 | Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver | pip: 100
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=-aB-bCCCB----B--aa-bbcab--:1:-1:1:65:0:0:3:0:10 |
| Blue to play 65 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 13/8 13/7 | eq: +0.741 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 85.17% (G:8.21% B:0.10%)
14.83% (G:0.63% B:0.02%) | Conf.: ± 0.006 (+0.735...+0.748) - [100.0%]
Duration: 49.6 seconds |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 7/1* 6/1 | eq: +0.645 (-0.096) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 81.16% (G:9.91% B:0.10%)
18.84% (G:1.71% B:0.05%) | Conf.: ± 0.008 (+0.638...+0.653) - [0.0%]
Duration: 56.8 seconds |
|
| |
1 648 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 21580805
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|