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Winning probability doesn't depend on match length?!

Posted By: rambiz
Date: Monday, 5 June 2023, at 9:04 p.m.

In Response To: Winning probability doesn't depend on match length?! (Timothy Chow)

I also think match winning chance is an increasing function of match length for a certain PR difference.

However, The PR itself is dependent on the match length.
For example, I personally play 7-pointers much better than 9-pointers. Because, I know almost all take points on initial cubes and recubes, the gammon values, etc in 7-pointer but not in a 9-pointer. And yes, I know some 9-pointers become 7-pointers as the match progresses.

The other thing is that mortal players adjust too much and are content with playing say 2-3PR above their normal performance when playing a 12 PR player. Sloppy play is another phenomenon often committed by the allegedly superior player during a match between players with big PR differences. I don't know how these things kick in the stats but something to consider.

A "true" stat in my opinion can be obtained by letting say gnu 2-ply play against gnu 4-ply many many times but again it won't help setting a line for humans with different PRs.

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