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Winning probability doesn't depend on match length?!

Posted By: Timothy Chow
Date: Tuesday, 6 June 2023, at 12:36 a.m.

In Response To: Winning probability doesn't depend on match length?! (Stick)

The real question is how quickly the match-winning chances increase with match length. The conventional formula with a square root of N doesn't seem to be very well founded, either theoretically or empirically.

But here's a concrete question. Suppose A beats B with 60% probability in a 5-point match. Do you have a gut feeling for how often A would beat B in a 17-point match?

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