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Cube problem, match vs money play

Posted By: Dan Pelton
Date: Tuesday, 2 December 2008, at 4:08 a.m.

Match to 25, White (Ken) leads Blue(Dan) 20 to 17
White on roll. Cube Action?

123
125
Board image courtesy of GO-Figure

Gnu 2-ply evaluates this as D/T with the error pretty small (.02) so I'm rolling it out. For the same position as a money game, it's D/P, with taking a huge triple whopper with cheese + extra bacon.

I don't really understand the reason for the huge difference. OTB Blue(me) dropped, as I felt that although there were good chances that while White may crunch, 2 in the air + 1 back behind a 6 prime with decent chances to roll it home gave my opponent lots of gammon chances, which would make the next game 8-away, 1-away Crawford. Also 4 rolls 2-5 & 2-6 help White's timing immensely, and any 2 gives them >50% chance of escaping on future rolls. Is this a MET issue?

If I had one up and anchored on the 23 pt, I would have been more inclined to take.

Messages In This Thread

• Cube problem, match vs money play
  Dan Pelton -- Tuesday, 2 December 2008, at 4:08 a.m.
  • Gnu evaluations & rollout
    Dan Pelton -- Tuesday, 2 December 2008, at 4:19 a.m.
  • Cube problem, match vs money play
    Matt Cohn-Geier -- Tuesday, 2 December 2008, at 3:31 p.m.
  • Cube problem, match vs money play
    Coolrey -- Tuesday, 2 December 2008, at 3:46 p.m.
    • where did gnu go wrong
      Dan Pelton -- Wednesday, 3 December 2008, at 4:25 a.m.
      • where did gnu go wrong
        Matt Cohn-Geier -- Wednesday, 3 December 2008, at 5:58 a.m.
        • where did gnu go wrong
          Dan Pelton -- Thursday, 4 December 2008, at 4:43 a.m.
          • where did gnu go wrong
            Matt Cohn-Geier -- Thursday, 4 December 2008, at 4:58 a.m.