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Well, I just didnt know.

Posted By: Matt Cohn-Geier
Date: Sunday, 28 June 2009, at 5:07 a.m.

In Response To: Well, I just didnt know. (Keene)

Hitting looks good at first with the blot but on further reflection not so good. You won't have any directs and the best you can do is 8s and 11s (8 numbers) plus 66 and maybe 33 (10 numbers). That's almost a direct but not a very good direct. If you don't hit and he escapes one, there will still be a checker back to pound away on or prime if necessary, and the timing is such that you will probably get another shot even if he manages to escape both.

Making the 14 point seems unnecessary and lets the back blot get attacked if White should roll well. 17(2) and 14 leaves 7s and 66 (7 numbers, all of which give many returns). The safest play is just 10(3) and 17, which leaves only 10s. That still keeps the 5 point in case White breaks his bar, and maintains some pressure on the bar point from the combined 20 point & 10 point and the spare checker on the 17.

I'd go with that: 10(3) and 17.

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