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Novi Consolation Final -- Critical Juncture -- Position 2 -- Be Sure to Look at Position 1 First

Posted By: Rich Munitz
Date: Wednesday, 8 July 2009, at 10:01 p.m.

In Response To: Novi Consolation Final -- Critical Juncture -- Position 2 -- Be Sure to Look at Position 1 First (Bill Riles)

I'd guess that white runs out of time first and leaves a direct shot 75% of the time and that shot gets hit 50% of the time, and blue wins from there 70% of the time. The chance of all of those happening is 26%. Add another couple of % for blue's chances of hitting some indirect shot in the outfield (28%) Of the 60% of the time that this doesn't happen and white brings both checkers home safely, figure blue still has perhaps 8% shot/race equity from the 3 point anchor. So add another 4% and blue is somewhere at around 32% wins. That seems too far from blue's takepoint to double here. I think white must either hit a shot or break the 15 point, get missed and then double while still having to scramble that last checker (or two) home.

ND/T

Messages In This Thread

• Novi Consolation Final -- Critical Juncture -- Position 2 -- Be Sure to Look at Position 1 First
  Bill Riles -- Wednesday, 8 July 2009, at 6:36 p.m.
  • Novi Consolation Final -- Critical Juncture -- Position 2 -- Be Sure to Look at Position 1 First
    David Rockwell -- Wednesday, 8 July 2009, at 9:07 p.m.
  • Novi Consolation Final -- Critical Juncture -- Position 2 -- Be Sure to Look at Position 1 First
    Keene -- Wednesday, 8 July 2009, at 9:22 p.m.
  • Novi Consolation Final -- Critical Juncture -- Position 2 -- Be Sure to Look at Position 1 First
    Coolrey -- Wednesday, 8 July 2009, at 9:53 p.m.
  • Novi Consolation Final -- Critical Juncture -- Position 2 -- Be Sure to Look at Position 1 First
    Rich Munitz -- Wednesday, 8 July 2009, at 10:01 p.m.
    • Novi Consolation Final -- Critical Juncture -- Position 2 -- Be Sure to Look at Position 1 First
      Rich Munitz -- Thursday, 9 July 2009, at 12:30 a.m.
      • Novi Consolation Final -- Critical Juncture -- Position 2 -- Be Sure to Look at Position 1 First
        Bill Riles -- Thursday, 9 July 2009, at 12:37 a.m.
        • Novi Consolation Final -- Critical Juncture -- Position 2 -- Be Sure to Look at Position 1 First
          adambulldog -- Thursday, 9 July 2009, at 2:33 a.m.
          • Novi Consolation Final -- Critical Juncture -- Position 2 -- Be Sure to Look at Position 1 First
            Bill Riles -- Thursday, 9 July 2009, at 2:46 a.m.
            • Novi Consolation Final -- Critical Juncture -- Position 2 -- Be Sure to Look at Position 1 First
              adambulldog -- Thursday, 9 July 2009, at 4:19 a.m.
              • Novi Consolation Final -- Critical Juncture -- Position 2 -- Be Sure to Look at Position 1 First
                Keene -- Thursday, 9 July 2009, at 5:46 a.m.
            • Novi Consolation Final -- Critical Juncture -- Position 2 -- Be Sure to Look at Position 1 First
              Bill Riles -- Thursday, 9 July 2009, at 1:53 p.m.
              • Novi Consolation Final -- Critical Juncture -- Position 2 -- Be Sure to Look at Position 1 First
                adambulldog -- Thursday, 9 July 2009, at 2:16 p.m.
              • Novi Consolation Final -- Critical Juncture -- Position 2 -- Be Sure to Look at Position 1 First
                Petter Bengtsson -- Thursday, 9 July 2009, at 2:28 p.m.
  • Novi Consolation Final -- Critical Juncture -- Position 2 -- Be Sure to Look at Position 1 First
    Joe Russell -- Wednesday, 8 July 2009, at 11:37 p.m.