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Re: Re: OLM Sunday Nov. 26th

Posted By: rew
Date: Sunday, 26 November 2006, at 6:36 p.m.

In Response To: Re: OLM Sunday Nov. 26th (Black Swan)

i agree with 20/10(2). If he misses we have clearly gained. All checkers are brought home and perfectly distributed to play as safely as possible agains the 2pt anchor. On the other hand had we played safe we would have to bring those checkers home, giving some indirects on the way, placing the spares where the dice dictates, or possibly even giving a direct shot if we roll an immediate one. And of course frontloading must also have a price.

He has only a 2 point board with a slot so i dont fear the hit too much. Even if he rolls a strong 6 like 61,63 or 65 we should be the favourite. And very importantly as BS points out a 6 is dangerous for us as well if we stay on the 15.

Too summarize : There certainly is some risk involved in playing 20/10(2), but since even immediately the 'safe' play has risks, the next exchange is not fatal, and 20/10(2) has clear long term gains i think it is likely correct.

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